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Live prediction market odds for Alaska Governor Election Winner. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.

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Alaska Governor Election Winner

2026-11-03

Best price · tap to trade

Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins78¢1.28xPolymarketBernadette Wilson20¢5.00xKalshiDave Bronson5¢20.00xKalshi
Compare all 20 outcomes across 2 venues

About This Market

Traders give Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins about a 77.9% chance. Bernadette Wilson follows at 19.0%, Dave Bronson follows at 2.8%, and Treg Taylor follows at 1.1%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 1.8 percentage points.

Traders give Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins about a 77.9% chance. Bernadette Wilson follows at 19.0%, Dave Bronson follows at 2.8%, and Treg Taylor follows at 1.1%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 1.8 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the Alaska Governor Election Winner for the upcoming 2026 election. This race is crucial as it will determine the leadership direction of Alaska, influencing state policies and governance for years to come.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

2 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
JK
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins
single venue78%
—
Polymarket78¢
Polymarket1.28x78¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
PolymarketPolymarket
77.9%78¢78¢22¢22¢
BW
Bernadette Wilson
19%
Kalshi20¢
Polymarket20¢
Kalshi5.00x20¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
19.0%17¢20¢80¢83¢
PolymarketPolymarket
19.0%19¢20¢80¢81¢
DB
Dave Bronson
single venue3%
Kalshi5¢
—
Kalshi18.87x5¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
2.8%2¢5¢95¢98¢
TT
Treg Taylor
2%
Kalshi2¢
—
Kalshi45.45x2¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
2.0%1¢2¢98¢99¢
PolymarketPolymarket
—0¢—100¢100¢
TB
Tom Begich
1%
Kalshi1¢
Polymarket2¢
Kalshi111.11x1¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
0.8%1¢1¢99¢99¢
PolymarketPolymarket
1.3%1¢2¢99¢99¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Bernadette Wilson

Bernadette Wilson is a Republican candidate for Alaska governor in the 2026 election. She is the founder of Denali Disposal, a waste management company in Anchorage. She is relevant to this prediction market as a contender in the upcoming gubernatorial race.

About Treg Taylor

Treg Taylor is a Republican candidate for Alaska governor in the 2026 election. He served as Alaska's Attorney General from 2021 until his resignation in August 2025. His tenure was marked by legal actions against federal policies and a focus on public safety, including a significant reduction in violent crime during his term.

About Tom Begich

Tom Begich is a Democratic candidate for the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election. He served as Minority Leader of the Alaska State Senate from 2019 to 2023. His extensive experience in public service and leadership roles makes him a significant contender in this race.

About Shelley Hughes

Shelley Hughes is a Republican candidate for Governor of Alaska in the 2026 election. She served as a State Senator from Palmer, Alaska, from 2017 until her resignation in November 2025 to focus on her gubernatorial campaign. Hughes is relevant to this prediction market as a leading contender in the upcoming Alaska Governor Election.

About Click Bishop

Click Bishop is a former Alaska State Senator who served from 2013 to 2025. He was the Commissioner of the Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development from 2007 to 2012. He is relevant to the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election as a declared candidate for governor.

About Matt Heilala

Matt Heilala is a podiatrist and member of the Alaska State Medical Board. He was appointed to the board in 2021 by Governor Mike Dunleavy. Heilala is running as a Republican candidate in the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election.

About Nancy Dahlstrom

Nancy Dahlstrom is the current Lieutenant Governor of Alaska, serving since December 2022. She previously served as Commissioner of the Alaska Department of Corrections from 2018 to 2022. She is a candidate in the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election.

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
ABCAxiosCBSCNNFox NewsMSNBCPoliticoReutersSemaforthe Associated PressThe InformationThe New York TimesThe Wall Street JournalThe Washington Post
PolymarketPolymarket
UMA Optimistic Oracle
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread1.8%
Platforms2
Candidates20
Leader

Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins

77.9% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: Alaska Governor Election Winner

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Click Bishop is sworn in as the governor of Alaska pursuant to the election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles
ABCAxiosCBSCNNFox NewsMSNBCPoliticoReutersSemaforthe Associated PressThe InformationThe New York TimesThe Wall Street JournalThe Washington Post
PolymarketPolymarket
Primary Rule

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in Alaska for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.

Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic Oracle

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the significance of the Alaska Governor Election?

The Alaska Governor Election can shape state policies on key issues such as resource management and education. The outcome may also impact Alaska's relationship with federal authorities.

When is the Alaska Governor Election scheduled?

The election is scheduled for November 3, 2026. This timing aligns with the general election cycle in the United States.

How do prediction markets influence perceptions of the election?

Prediction markets aggregate public sentiment and expert analysis, providing insights into potential outcomes. Shifts in odds can reflect changing political dynamics and voter sentiment leading up to the election.

What does the Alaska Governor Election Winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest Alaska Governor Election Winner odds?

The latest available prices are Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins: 77.9¢ on Polymarket; Bernadette Wilson: 19.0¢ on Kalshi, 19.0¢ on Polymarket; Dave Bronson: 2.8¢ on Kalshi; Treg Taylor: 2.0¢ on Kalshi, 0.2¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Swiss initiatives: September 2026

Resolved Sep 27

Final odds

Prediction Market Track Record

Who will advance from Alaska's top-four primary for Governor?WONPre-event: 88%

Prediction Market Track Record

Who will advance from Alaska's top-four primary for Governor?LOSTPre-event: 34%

Prediction Market Track Record

Who will advance from Alaska's top-four primary for Governor?WONPre-event: 99%

Historical Track Record

Scroll to view past markets

Who will advance from Alaska's top-four primary for Governor?

Resolved

2026-08-18

LOSTShelley Hughes
Pre-event: 2%

Prediction Market Track Record

Who will advance from Alaska's top-four primary for Governor?LOSTPre-event: 2%

Prediction HuntPrediction.com coverage

Tom Begich Made the Alaska Governor Runoff. His Odds Fell to 3%.Begich finished second among 17 primary candidates with 20.1%, yet markets cut his winning probability from 18% to 3% once a two-Republican general election field locked in.Aug 30, 2026Begich Qualified for Alaska's General Election. His Odds Fell to 8%.Two Democrats on the November ballot will split center-left votes in a ranked-choice field. Begich's implied probability fell from 19% to 8% the night he advanced.Aug 28, 2026Tom Begich Halved to 24% After Alaska Primary Puts Him ThirdBegich fell from 48% to 24% in three days after finishing second among Democrats, behind Kreiss-Tomkins at 21.6% to Begich's 20.0%.Aug 23, 2026Treg Taylor Drops to 2% After Finishing Fifth in Alaska PrimaryTaylor missed the top-four cutoff on August 18, placing fifth with 7.6% of the vote. Markets repriced him from 29% to 2% within hours.Aug 21, 2026