Live prediction market odds for Arkansas State vs Arkansas. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-02-26
This market resolved on 2026-02-26. Arkansas was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 95%.
This market has resolved.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
ArkansasWINNER | 99% | 92% |
Arkansas State | 1% | 92% |
Arkansas State vs Arkansas was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Arkansas led the market at 95% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Arkansas State at 46%.
Arkansas held the lead at 95% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Arkansas, Arkansas State at 46% were the next closest contenders. The 90.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Arkansas: 99¢ on Kalshi, 92¢ on Polymarket. Arkansas State: 1¢ on Kalshi, 92¢ on Polymarket. The 90.5% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 95¢ meant the market estimated a 95% chance that Arkansas would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 95¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 5% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf Arkansas State wins the Arkansas State vs Arkansas College Baseball game originally scheduled for Feb 25, 2026 at 4:00 PM EST, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Arkansas
95.3% avg
