Live prediction market odds for Adrian Mannarino vs. Daniel Merida. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Join our Discord for breaking news alerts, driven by real-time movements in prediction markets.
MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-04-02
This market resolved on 2026-04-02. Daniel Merida was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 89%.
Adrian Mannarino vs. Daniel Merida — ATP Tennis match held on 2026-04-02. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Daniel MeridaWINNER | 99% | 79% |
Adrian Mannarino | 1% | 22% |
Adrian Mannarino vs. Daniel Merida was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Daniel Merida led the market at 89% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Adrian Mannarino at 11%.
Daniel Merida held the lead at 89% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Daniel Merida, Adrian Mannarino at 11% were the next closest contenders. The 20.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Daniel Merida: 99¢ on Kalshi, 79¢ on Polymarket. Adrian Mannarino: 1¢ on Kalshi, 22¢ on Polymarket. The 20.5% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 89¢ meant the market estimated a 89% chance that Daniel Merida would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 89¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 12% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
Build a custom bot or arb alert system for the “Adrian Mannarino vs. Daniel Merida” event. All for free.
As seen on Financial Times and Polymark.et
Used by builders and traders in our 2K+ Discord community
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Daniel Merida wins the Merida vs Mannarino professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Bucharest Round Of 16 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Merida vs Mannarino professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Bucharest Round Of 16 after a ball has been played. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks).
PolymarketThis market refers on the tennis match between Daniel Merida Aguilar and Adrian Mannarino in the Bucharest Open, scheduled for April 2 at 3:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Daniel Merida Aguilar' if Daniel Merida Aguilar advances against Adrian Mannarino. This market will resolve to 'Adrian Mannarino' if Adrian Mannarino advances against Daniel Merida Aguilar. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Daniel Merida
88.8% avg
