Live prediction market odds for Alexandre Muller vs. Matteo Arnaldi. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-04-05
This market resolved on 2026-04-05. Alexandre Muller was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 76%.
Alexandre Muller vs. Matteo Arnaldi — ATP Tennis match held on 2026-04-05. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Alexandre MullerWINNER | 99% | 52% |
Matteo Arnaldi | 1% | 48% |
Alexandre Muller vs. Matteo Arnaldi was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Alexandre Muller led the market at 76% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Matteo Arnaldi at 25%.
Alexandre Muller held the lead at 76% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Alexandre Muller, Matteo Arnaldi at 25% were the next closest contenders. The 47.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Alexandre Muller: 99¢ on Kalshi, 52¢ on Polymarket. Matteo Arnaldi: 1¢ on Kalshi, 48¢ on Polymarket. The 47.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 76¢ meant the market estimated a 76% chance that Alexandre Muller would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 76¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 32% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Matteo Arnaldi wins the Arnaldi vs Muller professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Monte Carlo Qualification Final after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Arnaldi vs Muller professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Monte Carlo Qualification Final after a ball has been played. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks).
PolymarketThis market refers on the tennis match between Matteo Arnaldi and Alexandre Muller in the Rolex Monte Carlo Masters, Qualification, scheduled for April 5 at 6:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Matteo Arnaldi' if Matteo Arnaldi advances against Alexandre Muller. This market will resolve to 'Alexandre Muller' if Alexandre Muller advances against Matteo Arnaldi. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Alexandre Muller
75.5% avg
