Live prediction market odds for Arthur Fils vs. Tommy Paul. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-03-26
This market resolved on 2026-03-26. Arthur Fils was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 77%.
Arthur Fils vs. Tommy Paul — ATP Tennis match held on 2026-03-26. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Arthur FilsWINNER | 99% | 55% |
Tommy Paul | 1% | 46% |
Arthur Fils vs. Tommy Paul was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Arthur Fils led the market at 77% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Tommy Paul at 23%.
Arthur Fils held the lead at 77% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Arthur Fils, Tommy Paul at 23% were the next closest contenders. The 44.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Arthur Fils: 99¢ on Kalshi, 55¢ on Polymarket. Tommy Paul: 1¢ on Kalshi, 46¢ on Polymarket. The 44.5% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 77¢ meant the market estimated a 77% chance that Arthur Fils would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 77¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 30% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Arthur Fils wins the Paul vs Fils professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Miami Quarterfinal after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Paul vs Fils professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Miami Quarterfinal after a ball has been played. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks).
PolymarketThis market refers on the tennis match between Tommy Paul and Arthur Fils in the Miami Open, scheduled for March 25 at 8:30PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Tommy Paul' if Tommy Paul advances against Arthur Fils. This market will resolve to 'Arthur Fils' if Arthur Fils advances against Tommy Paul. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Arthur Fils
76.8% avg
