Live prediction market odds for Daniel Michalski vs. Nikoloz Basilashvili. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-03-30
This market resolved on 2026-03-30. Nikoloz Basilashvili was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 82%.
Daniel Michalski vs. Nikoloz Basilashvili — ATP Tennis match held on 2026-03-30. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Nikoloz BasilashviliWINNER | 99% | 66% |
Daniel Michalski | 1% | 35% |
Daniel Michalski vs. Nikoloz Basilashvili was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Nikoloz Basilashvili led the market at 82% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Daniel Michalski at 18%.
Nikoloz Basilashvili held the lead at 82% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Nikoloz Basilashvili, Daniel Michalski at 18% were the next closest contenders. The 33.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Nikoloz Basilashvili: 99¢ on Kalshi, 66¢ on Polymarket. Daniel Michalski: 1¢ on Kalshi, 35¢ on Polymarket. The 33.5% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 82¢ meant the market estimated a 82% chance that Nikoloz Basilashvili would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 82¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 22% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
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Nikoloz Basilashvili
82.3% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Nikoloz Basilashvili wins the Basilashvili vs Michalski professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Bucharest Qualification Round 1 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Basilashvili vs Michalski professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Bucharest Qualification Round 1 after a ball has been played. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks).
PolymarketThis market refers to the tennis match between Nikoloz Basilashvili and Daniel Michalski in the Bucharest Open, Qualification, scheduled for March 29 2026. This market will resolve to “Basilashvili” if Nikoloz Basilashvili wins the first set. It will resolve to “Michalski” if Daniel Michalski wins the first set. If the match begins but is not completed, and the first set is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on that completed set. If the first set is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP match statistics.
