Live prediction market odds for Frances Tiafoe vs. Alexei Popyrin. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-04-03
This market resolved on 2026-04-03. Frances Tiafoe was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 80%.
Frances Tiafoe vs. Alexei Popyrin — ATP Tennis match held on 2026-04-03. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Frances TiafoeWINNER | 99% | 61% |
Alexei Popyrin | 1% | 40% |
Frances Tiafoe vs. Alexei Popyrin was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Frances Tiafoe led the market at 80% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Alexei Popyrin at 20%.
Frances Tiafoe held the lead at 80% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Frances Tiafoe, Alexei Popyrin at 20% were the next closest contenders. The 38.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Frances Tiafoe: 99¢ on Kalshi, 61¢ on Polymarket. Alexei Popyrin: 1¢ on Kalshi, 40¢ on Polymarket. The 38.5% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 80¢ meant the market estimated a 80% chance that Frances Tiafoe would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 80¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 25% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Alexei Popyrin wins the Popyrin vs Tiafoe professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Houston Quarterfinal after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Popyrin vs Tiafoe professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Houston Quarterfinal after a ball has been played. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks).
PolymarketThis market refers on the tennis match between Alexei Popyrin and Frances Tiafoe in the US Men's Clay Court Championships, scheduled for April 3 at 7:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alexei Popyrin' if Alexei Popyrin advances against Frances Tiafoe. This market will resolve to 'Frances Tiafoe' if Frances Tiafoe advances against Alexei Popyrin. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frances Tiafoe
79.8% avg
