Live prediction market odds for Hugo Gaston vs. Luca Van Assche. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-03-30
This market resolved on 2026-03-30. Luca Van Assche was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 78%.
Hugo Gaston vs. Luca Van Assche — ATP Tennis match held on 2026-03-30. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Luca Van AsscheWINNER | 99% | 58% |
Hugo Gaston | 1% | 43% |
Hugo Gaston vs. Luca Van Assche was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Luca Van Assche led the market at 78% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Hugo Gaston at 22%.
Luca Van Assche held the lead at 78% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Luca Van Assche, Hugo Gaston at 22% were the next closest contenders. The 41.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Luca Van Assche: 99¢ on Kalshi, 58¢ on Polymarket. Hugo Gaston: 1¢ on Kalshi, 43¢ on Polymarket. The 41.5% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 78¢ meant the market estimated a 78% chance that Luca Van Assche would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 78¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 28% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Hugo Gaston wins the Van Assche vs Gaston professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Marrakech Round Of 32 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Van Assche vs Gaston professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Marrakech Round Of 32 after a ball has been played. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks).
PolymarketThis market refers on the tennis match between Luca Van Assche and Hugo Gaston in the Grand Prix Hassan II, scheduled for March 30 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Luca Van Assche' if Luca Van Assche advances against Hugo Gaston. This market will resolve to 'Hugo Gaston' if Hugo Gaston advances against Luca Van Assche. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Luca Van Assche
78.3% avg
