Live prediction market odds for Joel Josef Schwaerzler vs. Daniel Merida. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-03-31
This market resolved on 2026-03-31. Daniel Merida was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 82%.
Joel Josef Schwaerzler vs. Daniel Merida — ATP Tennis match held on 2026-03-31. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Daniel MeridaWINNER | 99% | 64% |
Joel Josef Schwaerzler vs. Daniel Merida was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Daniel Merida led the market at 82% implied probability before resolution.
Daniel Merida held the lead at 82% implied probability heading into resolution. The 35.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Daniel Merida: 99¢ on Kalshi, 64¢ on Polymarket. The 35.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 82¢ meant the market estimated a 82% chance that Daniel Merida would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 82¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 22% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Daniel Merida wins the Merida vs Schwaerzler professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Bucharest Qualification Final after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Merida vs Schwaerzler professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Bucharest Qualification Final after a ball has been played. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks).
PolymarketThis market refers on the tennis match between Daniel Merida Aguilar and Joel Schwaerzler in the Bucharest Open, Qualification, scheduled for March 31 at 5:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Daniel Merida Aguilar' if Daniel Merida Aguilar advances against Joel Schwaerzler. This market will resolve to 'Joel Schwaerzler' if Joel Schwaerzler advances against Daniel Merida Aguilar. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Daniel Merida
81.5% avg
