Live prediction market odds for Mackenzie McDonald vs. Thiago Agustin Tirante. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-03-31
This market resolved on 2026-03-31. Thiago Agustin Tirante was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 82%.
Mackenzie McDonald vs. Thiago Agustin Tirante — ATP Tennis match held on 2026-03-31. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Thiago Agustin TiranteWINNER | 99% | 65% |
Mackenzie McDonald | 1% | 36% |
Mackenzie McDonald vs. Thiago Agustin Tirante was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Thiago Agustin Tirante led the market at 82% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Mackenzie McDonald at 18%.
Thiago Agustin Tirante held the lead at 82% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Thiago Agustin Tirante, Mackenzie McDonald at 18% were the next closest contenders. The 34.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Thiago Agustin Tirante: 99¢ on Kalshi, 65¢ on Polymarket. Mackenzie McDonald: 1¢ on Kalshi, 36¢ on Polymarket. The 34.5% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 82¢ meant the market estimated a 82% chance that Thiago Agustin Tirante would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 82¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 22% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
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As seen on Financial Times and Polymark.et
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Thiago Agustin Tirante
81.8% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Thiago Agustin Tirante wins the Tirante vs McDonald professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Houston Round Of 16 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Tirante vs McDonald professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Houston Round Of 16 after a ball has been played. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks).
PolymarketThis market refers to the tennis match between Thiago Agustin Tirante and Mackenzie McDonald in the US Men's Clay Court Championships, scheduled for April 1 2026. This market will resolve to “Tirante” if Thiago Agustin Tirante wins the first set. It will resolve to “McDonald” if Mackenzie McDonald wins the first set. If the match begins but is not completed, and the first set is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on that completed set. If the first set is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP match statistics.
