Live prediction market odds for Marco Trungelliti vs. Henrique Rocha. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-03-31
This market resolved on 2026-03-31. Marco Trungelliti was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 71%.
Marco Trungelliti vs. Henrique Rocha — ATP Tennis match held on 2026-03-31. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Marco TrungellitiWINNER | 99% | 43% |
Henrique Rocha | 1% | 57% |
Marco Trungelliti vs. Henrique Rocha was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Marco Trungelliti led the market at 71% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Henrique Rocha at 29%.
Marco Trungelliti held the lead at 71% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Marco Trungelliti, Henrique Rocha at 29% were the next closest contenders. The 56.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Marco Trungelliti: 99¢ on Kalshi, 43¢ on Polymarket. Henrique Rocha: 1¢ on Kalshi, 57¢ on Polymarket. The 56.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 71¢ meant the market estimated a 71% chance that Marco Trungelliti would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 71¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 41% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
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Marco Trungelliti
71.0% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Henrique Rocha wins the Rocha vs Trungelliti professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Marrakech Round Of 32 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Rocha vs Trungelliti professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Marrakech Round Of 32 after a ball has been played. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks).
PolymarketThis market refers to the tennis match between Henrique Rocha and Marco Trungelliti in the Grand Prix Hassan II, scheduled for March 31 2026. This market will resolve to “Rocha” if Henrique Rocha wins the first set. It will resolve to “Trungelliti” if Marco Trungelliti wins the first set. If the match begins but is not completed, and the first set is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on that completed set. If the first set is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP match statistics.
