Live prediction market odds for Matteo Arnaldi vs. Cristian Garin. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Join our Discord for breaking news alerts, driven by real-time movements in prediction markets.
MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-04-06
This market resolved on 2026-04-06. Cristian Garin was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 79%.
Matteo Arnaldi vs. Cristian Garin — ATP Tennis match held on 2026-04-06. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Cristian GarinWINNER | 99% | 59% |
Matteo Arnaldi | 1% | 41% |
Matteo Arnaldi vs. Cristian Garin was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Cristian Garin led the market at 79% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Matteo Arnaldi at 21%.
Cristian Garin held the lead at 79% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Cristian Garin, Matteo Arnaldi at 21% were the next closest contenders. The 40.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Cristian Garin: 99¢ on Kalshi, 59¢ on Polymarket. Matteo Arnaldi: 1¢ on Kalshi, 41¢ on Polymarket. The 40.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 79¢ meant the market estimated a 79% chance that Cristian Garin would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 79¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 27% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
Build a custom bot or arb alert system for the “Matteo Arnaldi vs. Cristian Garin” event. All for free.
As seen on Financial Times and Polymark.et
Used by builders and traders in our 2K+ Discord community
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Cristian Garin wins the Garin vs Arnaldi professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Monte Carlo Round Of 64 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Garin vs Arnaldi professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Monte Carlo Round Of 64 after a ball has been played. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks).
PolymarketThis market refers on the tennis match between Cristian Garin and Matteo Arnaldi in the Rolex Monte Carlo Masters, scheduled for April 6 at 8:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Cristian Garin' if Cristian Garin advances against Matteo Arnaldi. This market will resolve to 'Matteo Arnaldi' if Matteo Arnaldi advances against Cristian Garin. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Cristian Garin
79.0% avg
