Live prediction market odds for Stan Wawrinka vs. Sebastian Baez. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Join our Discord for breaking news alerts, driven by real-time movements in prediction markets.
MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-04-06
This market resolved on 2026-04-06. Sebastian Baez was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 83%.
Stan Wawrinka vs. Sebastian Baez — ATP Tennis match held on 2026-04-06. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Sebastian BaezWINNER | 99% | 67% |
Stan Wawrinka | 1% | 34% |
Stan Wawrinka vs. Sebastian Baez was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Sebastian Baez led the market at 83% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Stan Wawrinka at 17%.
Sebastian Baez held the lead at 83% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Sebastian Baez, Stan Wawrinka at 17% were the next closest contenders. The 32.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Sebastian Baez: 99¢ on Kalshi, 67¢ on Polymarket. Stan Wawrinka: 1¢ on Kalshi, 34¢ on Polymarket. The 32.5% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 83¢ meant the market estimated a 83% chance that Sebastian Baez would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 83¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 20% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
Build a custom bot or arb alert system for the “Stan Wawrinka vs. Sebastian Baez” event. All for free.
As seen on Financial Times and Polymark.et
Used by builders and traders in our 2K+ Discord community
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Stan Wawrinka wins the Baez vs Wawrinka professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Monte Carlo Round Of 64 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Baez vs Wawrinka professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Monte Carlo Round Of 64 after a ball has been played. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks).
PolymarketThis market refers on the tennis match between Sebastian Baez and Stan Wawrinka in the Rolex Monte Carlo Masters, scheduled for April 6 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Sebastian Baez' if Sebastian Baez advances against Stan Wawrinka. This market will resolve to 'Stan Wawrinka' if Stan Wawrinka advances against Sebastian Baez. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sebastian Baez
82.8% avg
