Live prediction market odds for Tomas Machac vs. Rafael Jodar. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-04-02
This market resolved on 2026-04-02. Rafael Jodar was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 73%.
Tomas Machac vs. Rafael Jodar — ATP Tennis match held on 2026-04-02. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Rafael JodarWINNER | 99% | 47% |
Tomas Machac | 1% | 54% |
Tomas Machac vs. Rafael Jodar was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Rafael Jodar led the market at 73% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Tomas Machac at 27%.
Rafael Jodar held the lead at 73% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Rafael Jodar, Tomas Machac at 27% were the next closest contenders. The 52.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Rafael Jodar: 99¢ on Kalshi, 47¢ on Polymarket. Tomas Machac: 1¢ on Kalshi, 54¢ on Polymarket. The 52.5% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 73¢ meant the market estimated a 73% chance that Rafael Jodar would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 73¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 37% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Tomas Machac wins the Jodar vs Machac professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Marrakech Round Of 16 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Jodar vs Machac professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Marrakech Round Of 16 after a ball has been played. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks).
PolymarketThis market refers on the tennis match between Rafael Jodar and Tomas Machac in the Grand Prix Hassan II, scheduled for April 1 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Rafael Jodar' if Rafael Jodar advances against Tomas Machac. This market will resolve to 'Tomas Machac' if Tomas Machac advances against Rafael Jodar. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rafael Jodar
72.8% avg
