Live prediction market odds for Tommy Paul vs. Adolfo Daniel Vallejo. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-03-31
This market resolved on 2026-03-31. Tommy Paul was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 77%.
Tommy Paul vs. Adolfo Daniel Vallejo — ATP Tennis match held on 2026-03-31. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Tommy PaulWINNER | 99% | 56% |
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo | 1% | 45% |
Tommy Paul vs. Adolfo Daniel Vallejo was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Tommy Paul led the market at 77% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Adolfo Daniel Vallejo at 23%.
Tommy Paul held the lead at 77% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Tommy Paul, Adolfo Daniel Vallejo at 23% were the next closest contenders. The 43.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Tommy Paul: 99¢ on Kalshi, 56¢ on Polymarket. Adolfo Daniel Vallejo: 1¢ on Kalshi, 45¢ on Polymarket. The 43.5% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 77¢ meant the market estimated a 77% chance that Tommy Paul would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 77¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 30% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
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Tommy Paul
77.3% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Adolfo Daniel Vallejo wins the Vallejo vs Paul professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Houston Round Of 16 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Vallejo vs Paul professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Houston Round Of 16 after a ball has been played. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks).
PolymarketThis market refers to the tennis match between Tommy Paul and Adolfo Vallejo in the US Men's Clay Court Championships, scheduled for April 1 2026. This market will resolve to "Paul" if Tommy Paul wins by 2 or more sets than Adolfo Vallejo, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Vallejo." If the match begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins or delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a result, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP results.
