Live prediction market odds for Vilius Gaubas vs. Sebastian Baez. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-03-29
This market resolved on 2026-03-29. Sebastian Baez was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 75%.
Vilius Gaubas vs. Sebastian Baez — ATP Tennis match held on 2026-03-29. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Sebastian BaezWINNER | 99% | 51% |
Vilius Gaubas | 1% | 50% |
Vilius Gaubas vs. Sebastian Baez was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Sebastian Baez led the market at 75% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Vilius Gaubas at 25%.
Sebastian Baez held the lead at 75% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Sebastian Baez, Vilius Gaubas at 25% were the next closest contenders. The 48.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Sebastian Baez: 99¢ on Kalshi, 51¢ on Polymarket. Vilius Gaubas: 1¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. The 48.5% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 75¢ meant the market estimated a 75% chance that Sebastian Baez would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 75¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 33% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
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Sebastian Baez
74.8% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Sebastian Baez wins the Baez vs Gaubas professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Bucharest Round Of 32 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Baez vs Gaubas professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Bucharest Round Of 32 after a ball has been played. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks).
PolymarketThis market refers to the tennis match between Sebastian Baez and Vilius Gaubas in the Bucharest Open, scheduled for March 30 2026. This market will resolve to "Baez" if Sebastian Baez wins by 2 or more sets than Vilius Gaubas, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Gaubas." If the match begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins or delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a result, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP results.
