Live prediction market odds for Vilius Gaubas vs. Sebastian Baez. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-03-30
This market resolved on 2026-03-30. Sebastian Baez was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 86%.
Vilius Gaubas vs. Sebastian Baez — ATP Tennis match held on 2026-03-30. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Sebastian BaezWINNER | 99% | 74% |
Vilius Gaubas | 1% | 27% |
Vilius Gaubas vs. Sebastian Baez was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Sebastian Baez led the market at 86% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Vilius Gaubas at 14%.
Sebastian Baez held the lead at 86% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Sebastian Baez, Vilius Gaubas at 14% were the next closest contenders. The 25.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Sebastian Baez: 99¢ on Kalshi, 74¢ on Polymarket. Vilius Gaubas: 1¢ on Kalshi, 27¢ on Polymarket. The 25.5% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 86¢ meant the market estimated a 86% chance that Sebastian Baez would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 86¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 16% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Vilius Gaubas wins the Baez vs Gaubas professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Bucharest Round Of 32 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Baez vs Gaubas professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Bucharest Round Of 32 after a ball has been played. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks).
PolymarketThis market refers on the tennis match between Sebastian Baez and Vilius Gaubas in the Bucharest Open, scheduled for March 30 at 3:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Sebastian Baez' if Sebastian Baez advances against Vilius Gaubas. This market will resolve to 'Vilius Gaubas' if Vilius Gaubas advances against Sebastian Baez. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sebastian Baez
86.3% avg
