Blue wave in 2026? Odds - Blue wave in 2026 85¢

Live Markets

2 platforms

OutcomeConsensus

Kalshi

Polymarket

Best price

BW

Blue wave in 2026

85%

Platform	Implied %	Yes bid / ask		No bid / ask
Kalshi	84.0%	84¢	86¢	14¢	16¢
Polymarket	86.0%	85¢	87¢	13¢	15¢

Kalshi

Polymarket

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.

Kalshi

Primary Rule

If ALL of the following occur: Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House after the 2026 midterms AND Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate after the 2026 midterms, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: "Will Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House?" uses SEATSCONGRESS, "Will Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate?" uses SEATSCONGRESS. For economic data releases, resolution uses the first officially released value (not preliminary or revised estimates unless specified). All conditions must be satisfied within the specified time period. This market will resolve based on the composition of the U.S. House of Representatives and the Senate on February 1, 2027. Individuals caucusing with either party will be included with them (e.g. an Independent who caucuses with a party, like Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders who caucuses with the Democrats, would be counted as a Democrat).

Resolution Oracles

Bureau of Labor Statistics Bureau of Labor Statistics Federal Reserve Board of Governors

Polymarket

Primary Rule

This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections: - Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House - Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf

Resolution Oracles

UMA Optimistic Oraclepolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com

Frequently Asked Questions

What does a blue wave mean in the context of the 2026 elections?

A blue wave refers to a significant electoral victory for the Democratic Party, potentially leading to increased control in Congress. This could result in a shift in legislative priorities and policy implementation.

How could polling data affect the odds for a blue wave?

Polling data provides insights into voter sentiment and party support leading up to the elections. Changes in polling can lead to fluctuations in prediction market odds as analysts adjust their expectations.

What factors could influence the outcome of the 2026 elections?

Key factors include economic conditions, voter turnout, candidate popularity, and major national issues at the time. These elements can significantly sway public opinion and ultimately impact election results.

What does the Blue wave in 2026 prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest Blue wave in 2026 odds?

The latest available prices are Blue wave in 2026: 84.0¢ on Kalshi, 86.0¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.