Live prediction market odds for St. Pauli vs. 1. FC Union Berlin. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-04-05
This market resolved on 2026-04-05. Tie was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 100%.
St. Pauli vs. 1. FC Union Berlin — Bundesliga game held on 2026-04-05. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
TieWINNER | 99% | 100% |
St. Pauli | 1% | 0% |
St. Pauli vs. 1. FC Union Berlin was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Tie led the market at 100% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include St. Pauli at 1%.
Tie held the lead at 100% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Tie, St. Pauli at 1% were the next closest contenders. Platforms were tightly aligned at a 1.0% spread, suggesting broad consensus on the odds.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Tie: 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. St. Pauli: 1¢ on Kalshi, 0¢ on Polymarket. Platforms were tightly aligned at a 1.0% spread, leaving little room for cross-platform arbitrage.
A price of 100¢ meant the market estimated a 100% chance that Tie would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 100¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 0% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Tie wins the Union Berlin vs St. Pauli professional Bundesliga soccer game originally scheduled for Apr 5, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Union Berlin vs St. Pauli professional Bundesliga soccer game originally scheduled for Apr 5, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties). If the game ends in a tie, the market called "Tie" resolves to Yes. If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to over two weeks away, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules.
PolymarketIn the upcoming game, scheduled for April 5, 2026 If the game ends in a draw, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Yes". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Tie
99.5% avg
