Live prediction market odds for Louisville Cardinals vs. Michigan State Spartans. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket and ProphetX.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket / ProphetX
Resolved 2026-03-21
This market resolved on 2026-03-21. Michigan St was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 99%.
cbb-lou-msu-2026-03-21 : Sports event: Louisville Cardinals vs. Michigan State Spartans - cbb
| Candidate |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
Michigan StWINNER | 99% | 84% | 99% |
Louisville | 1% | 17% | 4% |
Louisville Cardinals vs. Michigan State Spartans was a prediction market event tracked across 3 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket, ProphetX). Michigan St led the market at 94% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Louisville at 7%.
Michigan St held the lead at 94% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Michigan St, Louisville at 7% were the next closest contenders. The 15.6% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket, ProphetX: Michigan St: 99¢ on Kalshi, 84¢ on Polymarket, 99¢ on ProphetX. Louisville: 1¢ on Kalshi, 17¢ on Polymarket, 4¢ on ProphetX. The 15.6% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 94¢ meant the market estimated a 94% chance that Michigan St would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 94¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 6% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket and ProphetX.
KalshiIf Michigan St. wins the Louisville at Michigan St. men's college basketball game originally scheduled for Mar 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the team who wins the Louisville at Michigan St. men's college basketball game originally scheduled for Mar 21, 2026. If this game is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled game has finished (within two weeks). If the cancelled game is not played or is rescheduled further than two weeks out, the market will resolve to a fair price for each team in accordance with the rules. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the NCAA. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
PolymarketIn the upcoming CBB game, scheduled for March 21 at 12:00 AM ET: If the Louisville Cardinals win, the market will resolve to "Louisville Cardinals". If the Michigan State Spartans win, the market will resolve to "Michigan State Spartans". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
ProphetXSports moneyline - resolves based on official game outcome per ProphetX Prediction Rules
Michigan St
93.9% avg
