Live prediction market odds for Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Louisville Cardinals. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-02-04
This market resolved on 2026-02-04. Louisville was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 97%.
cbb-nd-lou-2026-02-03 : Sports event: Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Louisville Cardinals - cbb
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
LouisvilleWINNER | 99% | 94% |
Notre Dame | 1% | 6% |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Louisville Cardinals was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Louisville led the market at 97% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Notre Dame at 4%.
Louisville held the lead at 97% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Louisville, Notre Dame at 4% were the next closest contenders. The 5.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Louisville: 99¢ on Kalshi, 94¢ on Polymarket. Notre Dame: 1¢ on Kalshi, 6¢ on Polymarket. The 5.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 97¢ meant the market estimated a 97% chance that Louisville would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 97¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 3% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
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Louisville
96.5% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf Notre Dame wins the Notre Dame at Louisville men's college basketball game originally scheduled for Feb 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the team who wins the Notre Dame at Louisville men's college basketball game originally scheduled for Feb 4, 2026. If this game is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled game has finished (within two weeks). If the cancelled game is not played or is rescheduled further than two weeks out, the market will resolve to a fair price for each team in accordance with the rules. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the NCAA. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
