Live prediction market odds for SMU Mustangs vs. Louisville Cardinals. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket and ProphetX.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket / ProphetX
Resolved 2026-03-11
This market resolved on 2026-03-11. Louisville was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 75%.
cbb-smu-lou-2026-03-11 : Sports event: SMU Mustangs vs. Louisville Cardinals - cbb
| Candidate |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
LouisvilleWINNER | 99% | 63% | 75% |
SMU | 1% | 37% | 44% |
SMU Mustangs vs. Louisville Cardinals was a prediction market event tracked across 3 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket, ProphetX). Louisville led the market at 79% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include SMU at 27%.
Louisville held the lead at 79% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Louisville, SMU at 27% were the next closest contenders. The 42.7% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket, ProphetX: Louisville: 99¢ on Kalshi, 63¢ on Polymarket, 75¢ on ProphetX. SMU: 1¢ on Kalshi, 37¢ on Polymarket, 44¢ on ProphetX. The 42.7% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 79¢ meant the market estimated a 79% chance that Louisville would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 79¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 27% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
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Louisville
79.1% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf Louisville wins the SMU at Louisville men's college basketball game originally scheduled for Mar 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the team who wins the SMU at Louisville men's college basketball game originally scheduled for Mar 11, 2026. If this game is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled game has finished (within two weeks). If the cancelled game is not played or is rescheduled further than two weeks out, the market will resolve to a fair price for each team in accordance with the rules. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the NCAA. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
