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Live prediction market odds for DAYTONA 500 Winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Live prediction market odds for DAYTONA 500 Winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Join our Discord for breaking news alerts, driven by real-time movements in prediction markets.
MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-02-16
This market resolved on 2026-02-16. Tyler Reddick was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 100%.
This market has resolved.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Tyler ReddickWINNER | 99% | 100% |
Tyler ReddickWINNER | 99% | 100% |
A.J. Allmendinger | 1% | 50% |
A.J. Allmendinger | 1% | 50% |
Alex Bowman | 1% | 50% |
Alex Bowman | 1% | 50% |
Anthony Alfredo | 1% | 50% |
Anthony Alfredo | 1% | 50% |
Austin Cindric | 1% | 50% |
Austin Cindric | 1% | 50% |
Austin Dillon | 1% | 50% |
Austin Dillon | 1% | 50% |
Brad Keselowski | 1% | 50% |
Brad Keselowski | 1% | 50% |
Bubba Wallace | 1% | 50% |
Bubba Wallace | 1% | 50% |
Carson Hocevar | 1% | 50% |
Carson Hocevar | 1% | 50% |
Casey Mears | 1% | 50% |
Casey Mears | 1% | 50% |
Chandler Smith | 1% | 50% |
Chandler Smith | 1% | 50% |
Chase Briscoe | 1% | 50% |
Chase Briscoe | 1% | 50% |
Chase Elliott | 1% | 50% |
Chase Elliott | 1% | 50% |
Chris Buescher | 1% | 50% |
Chris Buescher | 1% | 50% |
Christopher Bell | 1% | 50% |
Christopher Bell | 1% | 50% |
Cody Ware | 1% | 50% |
Cody Ware | 1% | 50% |
Cole Custer | 1% | 50% |
Cole Custer | 1% | 50% |
Connor Zilisch | 1% | 50% |
Connor Zilisch | 1% | 50% |
Corey Heim | 1% | 50% |
Corey Heim | 1% | 50% |
Corey LaJoie | 1% | 50% |
Corey LaJoie | 1% | 50% |
Daniel Suárez | 1% | 50% |
Daniel Suárez | 1% | 50% |
Denny Hamlin | 1% | 50% |
Denny Hamlin | 1% | 50% |
Erik Jones | 1% | 50% |
Erik Jones | 1% | 50% |
Jimmie Johnson | 1% | 50% |
Jimmie Johnson | 1% | 50% |
Joey Logano | 1% | 50% |
Joey Logano | 1% | 50% |
John H. Nemechek | 1% | 50% |
John Hunter Nemechek | 1% | 50% |
Josh Berry | 1% | 50% |
Josh Berry | 1% | 50% |
Justin Allgaier | 1% | 50% |
Justin Allgaier | 1% | 50% |
Kyle Busch | 1% | 50% |
Kyle Busch | 1% | 50% |
Kyle Larson | 1% | 50% |
Kyle Larson | 1% | 50% |
Michael McDowell | 1% | 50% |
Michael McDowell | 1% | 50% |
Noah Gragson | 1% | 50% |
Noah Gragson | 1% | 50% |
Ricky Stenhouse | 1% | 50% |
Ricky Stenhouse Jr | 1% | 50% |
Ricky Stenhouse Jr | 1% | 50% |
Riley Herbst | 1% | 50% |
Riley Herbst | 1% | 50% |
Ross Chastain | 1% | 50% |
Ross Chastain | 1% | 50% |
Ryan Blaney | 1% | 50% |
Ryan Blaney | 1% | 50% |
Ryan Preece | 1% | 50% |
Ryan Preece | 1% | 50% |
Shane van Gisbergen | 1% | 50% |
Shane van Gisbergen | 1% | 50% |
Todd Gilliland | 1% | 50% |
Todd Gilliland | 1% | 50% |
Ty Dillon | 1% | 50% |
Ty Dillon | 1% | 50% |
Ty Gibbs | 1% | 50% |
Ty Gibbs | 1% | 50% |
William Byron | 1% | 50% |
William Byron | 1% | 50% |
Zane Smith | 1% | 50% |
Zane Smith | 1% | 50% |
DAYTONA 500 Winner was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Tyler Reddick led the market at 100% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Tyler Reddick at 100%, A.J. Allmendinger at 26%, A.J. Allmendinger at 26%.
Tyler Reddick held the lead at 100% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Tyler Reddick, Tyler Reddick at 100% and A.J. Allmendinger at 26% and A.J. Allmendinger at 26% were the next closest contenders. The 49.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Tyler Reddick: 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. Tyler Reddick: 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. A.J. Allmendinger: 1¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. A.J. Allmendinger: 1¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. The 49.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 100¢ meant the market estimated a 100% chance that Tyler Reddick would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 100¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 0% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
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Tyler Reddick
99.5% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf Ross Chastain wins the 2026 DAYTONA 500, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement is based on the final championship results published by NASCAR. If the season is canceled or no champion is officially declared, the market resolves to No.