Live prediction market odds for Donald Trump out as President?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket and Opinion.
Kalshi / Polymarket / Opinion
2026-12-31
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the likelihood of Donald Trump exiting the presidency before the end of 2026. This event is pivotal as it could reshape the political landscape and influence the upcoming elections, depending on legal challenges and public sentiment.
Trump out as President before 2027 is priced at 13.3% implied probability for the “Donald Trump out as President” event. A 2.6% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Legal challenges, including ongoing investigations and potential indictments, could impact Trump's ability to remain in office. Additionally, public opinion and political pressures may influence his decision to step down.
Prediction markets aggregate the views of participants, providing insights into how likely events are perceived to be. Fluctuations in odds can indicate changing public sentiment and reactions to political developments.
Upcoming elections may heighten scrutiny on Trump's presidency and influence his political strategy. Candidates and party dynamics could shift the odds as stakeholders assess the implications of his potential departure.
Donald Trump out as President is a prediction market event currently tracked across 3 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket, Opinion). Trump out as President before 2027 leads at 13% implied probability, making it the market favorite.
Trump out as President before 2027 currently leads at 13% implied probability. A 2.6% spread across platforms indicated moderate disagreement on the latest developments.
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Trump out as President before 2027
13.3% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Opinion and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Donald Trump leaves office before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
If Donald Trump leaves solely because they have died, the associated market will resolve and the Exchange will determine the payouts to the holders of long and short positions based upon the last traded price (prior to the death). If a last traded price is not available or is not logically consistent, or if the Exchange determines at its sole discretion that the last traded prices prior to death do not represent a fair settlement value, the Outcome Review Committee will be responsible for making a binding determination of fair allocation.
OpinionThis market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count. A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
PolymarketThis market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count. A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
