Donald Trump out as President?
Live prediction market odds for Donald Trump out as President?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket and Opinion and Predict.fun.
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Traders give Before January 20, 2029 about a 29.5% chance. Before 2028 follows at 16.5% and Trump out as President before 2027 follows at 2.1%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket, Opinion, and Predict.fun. The largest cross-platform price difference is 6.2 percentage points.
KalshiPolymarketOpinionPredict.funOfficial settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Opinion and Polymarket and Predict.fun.
KalshiIf Donald Trump leaves office before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
If Donald Trump leaves solely because they have died, the associated market will resolve and the Exchange will determine the payouts to the holders of long and short positions based upon the last traded price (prior to the death). If a last traded price is not available or is not logically consistent, or if the Exchange determines at its sole discretion that the last traded prices prior to death do not represent a fair settlement value, the Outcome Review Committee will be responsible for making a binding determination of fair allocation.
OpinionThis market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count. A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
PolymarketThis market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count. A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Predict.funThis market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count. A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Legal challenges, including ongoing investigations and potential indictments, could impact Trump's ability to remain in office. Additionally, public opinion and political pressures may influence his decision to step down.
Prediction markets aggregate the views of participants, providing insights into how likely events are perceived to be. Fluctuations in odds can indicate changing public sentiment and reactions to political developments.
Upcoming elections may heighten scrutiny on Trump's presidency and influence his political strategy. Candidates and party dynamics could shift the odds as stakeholders assess the implications of his potential departure.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket, Opinion, Predict.fun in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.
The latest available prices are Before January 20, 2029: 29.5¢ on Kalshi; Before 2028: 16.5¢ on Kalshi; Trump out as President before 2027: 1.9¢ on Kalshi, 2.3¢ on Polymarket, 7.6¢ on Opinion, 1.4¢ on Predict.fun. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.
Smart money is betting against Trump out as President before 2027
Smart money is betting against Trump out as President before 2027
Live tracking of high-volume trades from historically profitable accounts.
Trader up $189K lifetime sold $2.4K of No at 97¢
13h agoTrump out as President before 2027?Trade on Kalshi Trader up $2.5M lifetime bought $1K of No at 97¢
15h agoTrump out as President before 2027?Trade on Kalshi Trader up $2.5M lifetime bought $8.7K of No at 97¢
17h agoTrump out as President before 2027?Trade on Kalshi Trader up $558K lifetime bought $4.1K of No at 97¢
17h agoTrump out as President before 2027?Trade on Kalshi Trader up $2.5M lifetime bought $4.8K of No at 97¢
21h agoTrump out as President before 2027?Trade on Kalshi 
