Live prediction market odds for Donald Trump out as President?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket and Opinion and Predict.fun.
Donald Trump out as President?
2026-12-31
Best price · tap to trade
Live prediction market odds for Donald Trump out as President?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket and Opinion and Predict.fun.
2026-12-31
Best price · tap to trade
Traders give Trump out as President before 2027 about a 4.3% chance. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket, Opinion, and Predict.fun. The largest cross-platform price difference is 7.0 percentage points.
Traders give Trump out as President before 2027 about a 4.3% chance. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket, Opinion, and Predict.fun. The largest cross-platform price difference is 7.0 percentage points.
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the likelihood of Donald Trump exiting the presidency before the end of 2026. This event is pivotal as it could reshape the political landscape and influence the upcoming elections, depending on legal challenges and public sentiment.
Trump out as President before 2027
4.3% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Opinion and Polymarket and Predict.fun.
KalshiIf Donald Trump leaves office before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
If Donald Trump leaves solely because they have died, the associated market will resolve and the Exchange will determine the payouts to the holders of long and short positions based upon the last traded price (prior to the death). If a last traded price is not available or is not logically consistent, or if the Exchange determines at its sole discretion that the last traded prices prior to death do not represent a fair settlement value, the Outcome Review Committee will be responsible for making a binding determination of fair allocation.
OpinionThis market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count. A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
PolymarketThis market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count. A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Predict.funThis market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count. A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Legal challenges, including ongoing investigations and potential indictments, could impact Trump's ability to remain in office. Additionally, public opinion and political pressures may influence his decision to step down.
Prediction markets aggregate the views of participants, providing insights into how likely events are perceived to be. Fluctuations in odds can indicate changing public sentiment and reactions to political developments.
Upcoming elections may heighten scrutiny on Trump's presidency and influence his political strategy. Candidates and party dynamics could shift the odds as stakeholders assess the implications of his potential departure.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket, Opinion, Predict.fun in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.
The latest available prices are Trump out as President before 2027: 3.6¢ on Kalshi, 5.0¢ on Polymarket, 10.6¢ on Opinion, 4.1¢ on Predict.fun. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.
Live tracking of high-volume trades from historically profitable accounts.
Trader up $82.5K lifetime sold $1.3K of No at 96¢
12h agoTrump out as President before 2027?Trade on Kalshi →Trader up $140K lifetime bet $4.8K on No at 95¢
1d agoTrump out as President before 2027?Trade on Kalshi →Trader up $50.2K lifetime sold $960 of No at 96¢
2d agoTrump out as President before 2027?Trade on Kalshi →Trader up $76.7K lifetime bet $645 on No at 95¢
3d agoTrump out as President before 2027?Trade on Kalshi →Trader up $2.2M lifetime bet $14.6K on No at 95¢
5d agoTrump out as President before 2027?Trade on Kalshi →