England Wins: England vs Pakistan

England vs Pakistan was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). England led the market at 79% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Pakistan at 21%.

England held the lead at 79% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind England, Pakistan at 21% were the next closest contenders. The 40.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: England: 99¢ on Kalshi, 59¢ on Polymarket. Pakistan: 1¢ on Kalshi, 42¢ on Polymarket. The 40.5% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.

A price of 79¢ meant the market estimated a 79% chance that England would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 79¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 27% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.