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MarketsArbWhalesTrending

Live prediction market odds for Florida Democratic Senate Primary Winner. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.

Kalshi / Polymarket

Florida Democratic Senate Primary Winner

2026-08-18

About This Market

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Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the Florida Democratic Senate Primary Winner for the upcoming 2026 election. This primary is crucial for determining the Democratic candidate who will compete in a key Senate race, influencing party dynamics and voter turnout in Florida.

Alexander Vindman leads the “Florida Democratic Senate Primary Winner” event at 89.6% implied probability. Other contenders include Jared Moskowitz (5.3%), Jennifer Jenkins (1.4%), Angie Nixon (1.2%), and Josh Weil (1.1%). A 4.8% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
No price history available

Live Markets

2 platforms
AV
Alexander Vindman
89% Avg
Kalshi92¢
Polymarket89¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
89.5%87¢92¢8¢13¢
PolymarketPolymarket
87.5%86¢89¢11¢15¢
JM
Jared MoskowitzARB
6% Avg
Kalshi9¢
Polymarket6¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
7.5%6¢9¢91¢94¢
PolymarketPolymarket
5.0%4¢6¢95¢96¢
JJ
Jennifer Jenkins
1% Avg
Kalshi2¢
Polymarket1¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
1.5%1¢2¢98¢99¢
PolymarketPolymarket
1.0%1¢1¢99¢100¢
AN
Angie NixonARB
1% Avg
Kalshi2¢
Polymarket1¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
1.5%1¢2¢98¢99¢
PolymarketPolymarket
0.5%0¢1¢100¢100¢
JW
Josh Weil
1% Avg
Kalshi1¢
Polymarket2¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
0.5%0¢1¢99¢100¢
PolymarketPolymarket
1.5%1¢2¢98¢99¢

Candidate Spotlight

About Alexander Vindman

Alexander Vindman is a retired U.S. Army lieutenant colonel and former Director of European Affairs for the National Security Council. He testified in 2019 during President Trump's first impeachment inquiry, leading to his reassignment in 2020. In January 2026, he announced his candidacy for Florida's U.S. Senate special election, seeking the Democratic nomination.

About Jared Moskowitz

Jared Moskowitz is the U.S. Representative for Florida's 23rd congressional district, serving since January 2023. He previously directed the Florida Division of Emergency Management from 2019 to 2021. His experience in emergency management and current congressional role make him a notable candidate in the Florida Democratic Senate Primary.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the significance of the Florida Democratic Senate Primary?

The primary will decide the Democratic candidate for the Senate, which is vital for party representation in a competitive state. Winning this primary can set the stage for broader electoral strategies and influence national politics.

How do prediction markets reflect the candidates' chances?

Prediction markets aggregate real-time data and sentiment, reflecting how likely each candidate is to win based on various factors. Changes in odds can indicate shifts in public opinion, fundraising success, and campaign momentum.

What factors can influence the odds in this primary market?

Factors include candidate endorsements, polling results, campaign events, and voter engagement levels. Additionally, national political trends and issues relevant to Florida voters can significantly impact market perceptions.

What is "Florida Democratic Senate Primary Winner" and why does it matter?

Florida Democratic Senate Primary Winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Alexander Vindman leads at 90% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Jared Moskowitz at 5%, Jennifer Jenkins at 1%, Angie Nixon at 1%.

What is moving the odds on "Florida Democratic Senate Primary Winner"?

Alexander Vindman currently leads at 90% implied probability. Behind Alexander Vindman, Jared Moskowitz at 5% and Jennifer Jenkins at 1% and Angie Nixon at 1% are the next closest contenders. The 4.8% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Democratic PartyRepublican Party
PolymarketPolymarket
UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread4.8%
Platforms2
Candidates7
Leader

Alexander Vindman

89.6% avg

Market Rulebook: Florida Democratic Senate Primary Winner

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Josh Weil wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Class III (special election) Florida Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles
Democratic PartyRepublican Party
PolymarketPolymarket
Primary Rule

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Florida. If no 2026 Florida Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Florida Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources
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