Live prediction market odds for Grammys: Best Orchestral Performance Winner. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-02-01
This market resolved on 2026-02-01. Messiaen: Turangalîla-Symphonie - Andris Nelsons, Boston Symphony Orchestra was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 100%.
This market has resolved.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Messiaen: Turangalîla-Symphonie - Andris Nelsons, Boston Symphony OrchestraWINNER | 99% | 100% |
Coleridge-Taylor: Toussaint L’Ouverture; Ballade Op. 4; Suites From '24 Negro Melodies' | 5% | 50% |
Ravel: Boléro, M. 81 - Gustavo Dudamel, Simón Bolívar Symphony Orchestra Of Venezuela | 1% | 50% |
Still & Bonds - Yannick Nézet-Séguin, The Philadelphia Orchestra | 1% | 50% |
Stravinsky: Symphony In Three Movements - Esa-Pekka Salonen, San Francisco Symphony | 1% | 50% |
Grammys: Best Orchestral Performance Winner was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Messiaen: Turangalîla-Symphonie - Andris Nelsons, Boston Symphony Orchestra led the market at 100% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Coleridge-Taylor: Toussaint L’Ouverture; Ballade Op. 4; Suites From '24 Negro Melodies' at 28%, Ravel: Boléro, M. 81 - Gustavo Dudamel, Simón Bolívar Symphony Orchestra Of Venezuela at 26%, Still & Bonds - Yannick Nézet-Séguin, The Philadelphia Orchestra at 26%.
Messiaen: Turangalîla-Symphonie - Andris Nelsons, Boston Symphony Orchestra held the lead at 100% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Messiaen: Turangalîla-Symphonie - Andris Nelsons, Boston Symphony Orchestra, Coleridge-Taylor: Toussaint L’Ouverture; Ballade Op. 4; Suites From '24 Negro Melodies' at 28% and Ravel: Boléro, M. 81 - Gustavo Dudamel, Simón Bolívar Symphony Orchestra Of Venezuela at 26% and Still & Bonds - Yannick Nézet-Séguin, The Philadelphia Orchestra at 26% were the next closest contenders. The 49.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Messiaen: Turangalîla-Symphonie - Andris Nelsons, Boston Symphony Orchestra: 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. Coleridge-Taylor: Toussaint L’Ouverture; Ballade Op. 4; Suites From '24 Negro Melodies': 5¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. Ravel: Boléro, M. 81 - Gustavo Dudamel, Simón Bolívar Symphony Orchestra Of Venezuela: 1¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. Still & Bonds - Yannick Nézet-Séguin, The Philadelphia Orchestra: 1¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. The 49.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 100¢ meant the market estimated a 100% chance that Messiaen: Turangalîla-Symphonie - Andris Nelsons, Boston Symphony Orchestra would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 100¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 0% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
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Messiaen: Turangalîla-Symphonie - Andris Nelsons, Boston Symphony Orchestra
99.5% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf Coleridge-Taylor: Toussaint L’Ouverture; Ballade Op. 4; Suites From '24 Negro Melodies' has won Best Orchestral Performance at the 68th Annual Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
**This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Recording Academy. Any references to the Recording Academy, the GRAMMY Awards, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between the Recording Academy and Kalshi.**
