Ireland Wins: Ireland vs Oman

Ireland vs Oman was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Ireland led the market at 75% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Oman at 26%.

Ireland held the lead at 75% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Ireland, Oman at 26% were the next closest contenders. The 49.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Ireland: 99¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. Oman: 1¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. The 49.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.

A price of 75¢ meant the market estimated a 75% chance that Ireland would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 75¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 33% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.