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PicksSmart MoneyArbitragePromos

Live prediction market odds for Maine Senate Election Winner. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket and PredictIt and Predict.fun.

Kalshi

Kalshi

4.9
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Get a $35 trading bonus

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket / PredictIt / Predict.fun

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Maine Senate Election Winner

2026-11-03

Best price · tap to trade

Troy Jackson (D)61¢1.64xKalshiSusan Collins (R)41¢2.44xKalshi

About This Market

Traders give Troy Jackson (D) about a 60.5% chance. Susan Collins (R) follows at 40.0%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, PredictIt, and Predict.fun. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.5 percentage points.

Traders give Troy Jackson (D) about a 60.5% chance. Susan Collins (R) follows at 40.0%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, PredictIt, and Predict.fun. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.5 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the Maine Senate Election Winner for the upcoming 2026 election. This race is crucial as it could impact the balance of power in the Senate, influencing legislative agendas and national politics.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

5 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
Kalshi
Polymarket US
Polymarket
PredictIt
Predict.fun
Best price
TJ
Troy Jackson (D)
61%
Kalshi61¢
Polymarket US61¢
Polymarket61¢
PredictIt60¢
Predict.fun64¢
Kalshi1.64x61¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
60.5%60¢61¢39¢40¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
60.0%60¢61¢39¢40¢
PolymarketPolymarket
61.0%60¢61¢39¢40¢
PredictItPredictIt
59.0%59¢60¢40¢41¢
Predict.funPredict.fun
61.0%58¢64¢36¢42¢
SC
Susan Collins (R)ARB
40%
Kalshi41¢
Polymarket US42¢
Polymarket39¢
PredictIt40¢
Predict.fun42¢
Kalshi2.44x41¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
40.5%40¢41¢59¢60¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
41.0%41¢42¢58¢59¢
PolymarketPolymarket
38.5%38¢39¢61¢62¢
PredictItPredictIt
39.5%39¢40¢60¢61¢
Predict.funPredict.fun
41.0%40¢42¢58¢60¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarketPredictItPredictItPredict.funPredict.fun

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Troy Jackson (D)

Troy Jackson is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine. He served as President of the Maine Senate from 2018 to 2024. Jackson is a fifth-generation logger from Allagash, known for his advocacy for workers' rights and his leadership in the state legislature.

About Susan Collins (R)

Susan Collins is the current U.S. Senator from Maine, serving her fifth term and chairing the Senate Appropriations Committee. She was first elected to the Senate in 1996 and has been reelected in 2002, 2008, 2014, and 2020. As the most senior Republican woman in the Senate, she has a reputation for bipartisan leadership and has been ranked as the most bipartisan member of the U.S. Senate by the Lugar Center and Georgetown University.

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
United States Congress
PolymarketPolymarket
UMA Optimistic Oracle
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread2.5%
Platforms5
Candidates2
Leader

Troy Jackson (D)

60.5% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: Maine Senate Election Winner

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket and Polymarket US and Predict.fun.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Maine for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles
United States Congress
PolymarketPolymarket
Primary Rule

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Maine U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic Oracle
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

If the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 election for US Senator from Maine, this market will settle to Yes. Outcome verified from relevant government authorities.

Predict.funPredict.fun
Primary Rule

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Maine U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the Maine Senate Election Winner?

Odds are influenced by candidate popularity, polling data, and campaign funding. Additionally, national political trends and voter turnout predictions play a significant role.

How do prediction markets work for elections like the Maine Senate race?

Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of election outcomes. Prices reflect the collective sentiment and perceived probabilities of various candidates winning.

When is the Maine Senate Election scheduled?

The Maine Senate Election is scheduled for November 3, 2026. This timing is significant as it coincides with the general election, which may drive higher voter engagement.

What does the Maine Senate Election Winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, PredictIt, Predict.fun in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest Maine Senate Election Winner odds?

The latest available prices are Troy Jackson (D): 60.5¢ on Kalshi, 61.0¢ on Polymarket, 59.0¢ on PredictIt, 60.0¢ on Polymarket US, 61.0¢ on Predict.fun; Susan Collins (R): 40.5¢ on Kalshi, 38.5¢ on Polymarket, 39.5¢ on PredictIt, 41.0¢ on Polymarket US, 41.0¢ on Predict.fun. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Final odds

Prediction Market Track Record

Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine in 2026?LOSTPre-event: 1%Maine Democratic Governor nominee?LOSTPre-event: 61%Maine Democratic Senate nominee on Jul 31, 2026?WONPre-event: 99%

Prediction Market Track Record

Who will attend the State of the Union?WONPre-event: 0%Which Senators will vote for Todd Blanche?LOSTPre-event: 1%

Historical Track Record

Scroll to view past markets

Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine in 2026?

Resolved

2026-05-01

LOSTTroy Jackson (D)
Pre-event: 1%

Maine Democratic Governor nominee?

Resolved

2026-06-09

LOSTTroy Jackson (D)
Pre-event: 61%

Maine Democratic Senate nominee on Jul 31, 2026?

Resolved

2026-08-08

WONTroy Jackson (D)
Pre-event: 99%

Who will attend the State of the Union?

Resolved

2026-02-24

WONSusan Collins (R)
Pre-event: 0%

Which Senators will vote for Todd Blanche?

Resolved

2027-01-01

LOSTSusan Collins (R)
Pre-event: 1%
Smart Money Positioning (24 hours)
Full Feed

Smart money is heavily buying Susan Collins (R)

Smart Money Consensus$1.6K
$1.3KYes$296No
Smart Traders Split4
2Yes2No
KalshiBuy Yes at 41¢Best price among US-regulated venues.

$10K+ lifetime-profit wallets · 24h net flow

Troy Jackson (D)
No$1.3K · 2 whales
Yes$204 · 1 whale
Susan Collins (R)
Yes$1.3K · 2 whales
No$296 · 2 whales

$10K+ lifetime-profit wallets · 24h net flow

Smart Money Feed
Full Feed

Live tracking of high-volume trades from historically profitable accounts.

Trader up $257K lifetime bet $543 on Yes at 38¢

18h ago
PolymarketPolymarket USWill the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Trade on Polymarket US →

Trader up $749K lifetime bet $1.1K on No at 37¢

18h ago
PolymarketPolymarket USWill the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Trade on Polymarket US →

Trader up $2.2M lifetime bet $720 on Yes at 36¢

20h ago
PolymarketPolymarket USWill the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Trade on Polymarket US →

Trader up $231K lifetime sold $1.3K of No at 66¢

2d ago
PolymarketPolymarket USWill the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Trade on Polymarket US →

Trader up $231K lifetime bet $640 on No at 32¢

2d ago
PolymarketPolymarket USWill the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Trade on Polymarket US →

Prediction HuntPrediction.com coverage

Jackson's Maine Senate Odds Fall 8 Points as Collins Fights BackA $1.1M GOP ad blitz on transgender prison policy and Collins's Social Security rebuttals pulled Jackson from 71% to 63% in three days.Sep 26, 2026Jackson Abortion Endorsement Coincides With 7x Volume Surge in MaineMaine Senate Election Winner logged $191K on Aug 28, nearly 8x its baseline. Jackson leads Collins by 2.3 points with 66 days to go.Aug 29, 2026Democrats Hit 63% in Maine Senate Market as Platner Faces Swap PressureDemocratic odds climbed 10pp in three days post-scandal. Markets price a clean nominee swap before Maine's July 13 withdrawal deadline.Jul 6, 2026