Live prediction market odds for Mario Barrios vs Ryan Garcia. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-02-22
This market resolved on 2026-02-22. Garcia was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 85%.
This market has resolved.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
GarciaWINNER | 99% | 70% |
Ryan Garcia | 99% | 70% |
Barrios | 1% | 30% |
Mario Barrios | 1% | 30% |
Mario Barrios vs Ryan Garcia was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Garcia led the market at 85% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Ryan Garcia at 85%, Barrios at 16%, Mario Barrios at 16%.
Garcia held the lead at 85% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Garcia, Ryan Garcia at 85% and Barrios at 16% and Mario Barrios at 16% were the next closest contenders. The 29.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Garcia: 99¢ on Kalshi, 70¢ on Polymarket. Ryan Garcia: 99¢ on Kalshi, 70¢ on Polymarket. Barrios: 1¢ on Kalshi, 30¢ on Polymarket. Mario Barrios: 1¢ on Kalshi, 30¢ on Polymarket. The 29.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 85¢ meant the market estimated a 85% chance that Garcia would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 85¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 18% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
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Garcia
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf Ryan Garcia wins the Mario Barrios vs Ryan Garcia boxing match originally scheduled for Feb 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Mario Barrios vs Ryan Garcia boxing match originally scheduled for Feb 21, 2026. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks).
84.5% avg
