Live prediction market odds for Lightning vs. Maple Leafs. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket and ProphetX.
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Kalshi / Polymarket / ProphetX
2026-03-07
nhl-tb-tor-2026-03-07 : Sports event: Lightning vs. Maple Leafs - nhl
Tampa Bay Lightning leads the “Lightning vs. Maple Leafs” event at 65.4% implied probability, followed by Toronto Maple Leafs at 35.1%. A 1.2% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Lightning vs. Maple Leafs is a prediction market event currently tracked across 3 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket, ProphetX). Tampa Bay Lightning leads at 65% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Toronto Maple Leafs at 35%.
Tampa Bay Lightning currently leads at 65% implied probability. Behind Tampa Bay Lightning, Toronto Maple Leafs at 35% are the next closest contenders. A 1.2% spread across platforms indicated moderate disagreement on the latest developments.
Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket, ProphetX: Tampa Bay Lightning: 65¢ on Kalshi, 66¢ on Polymarket, 66¢ on ProphetX. Toronto Maple Leafs: 35¢ on Kalshi, 35¢ on Polymarket, 36¢ on ProphetX. The 1.2% spread shows moderate platform divergence worth monitoring for potential opportunities.
A price of 65¢ means the market estimates a 65% probability that Tampa Bay Lightning will be the outcome. Buying one share at 65¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 54% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.
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Tampa Bay Lightning
65.4% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf TOR Maple Leafs wins the Tampa Bay at Toronto professional hockey game scheduled for Mar 7, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
