Live prediction market odds for Oscars 2026: Best Casting Winner. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-03-15
This market resolved on 2026-03-15. One Battle after Another was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 100%.
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the Oscars 2026 for Best Casting Winner. This category highlights the importance of casting in filmmaking, influencing both audience reception and industry recognition.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
One Battle after AnotherWINNER | 99% | 100% |
Hamnet | 1% | 50% |
Marty Supreme | 1% | 50% |
Sinners | 1% | 50% |
The Secret Agent | 1% | 50% |
Factors include critical acclaim for films, performances by actors, and industry trends. Additionally, previous awards and nominations can sway public and market sentiment.
The Oscars 2026 ceremony is scheduled for March 15, 2026. This date is significant as it marks the culmination of the awards season.
Casting can greatly affect a film's box office performance and critical reviews. A well-cast film often garners more attention and can lead to higher chances of award nominations.
Oscars 2026: Best Casting Winner was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). One Battle after Another led the market at 100% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Hamnet at 26%, Marty Supreme at 26%, Sinners at 26%.
One Battle after Another held the lead at 100% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind One Battle after Another, Hamnet at 26% and Marty Supreme at 26% and Sinners at 26% were the next closest contenders. The 49.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Sinners has won best Casting at the 98th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
**This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. Any references to the Academy Awards, the Oscars®, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences and Kalshi.** The 98th Academy Awards are expected to be held on March 15, 2026.
PolymarketThe Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed movie that wins the 98th Academy Award for Achievement in Casting. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Achievement in Casting when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
One Battle after Another
99.5% avg
