Live prediction market odds for Oscars 2026: Best Documentary Feature Film Winner. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-03-15
This market resolved on 2026-03-15. Mr. Nobody against Putin was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 100%.
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the Oscars 2026 for Best Documentary Feature Film Winner. This prestigious award influences filmmakers' careers and can significantly impact documentary visibility and funding in the industry.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Mr. Nobody against PutinWINNER | 99% | 100% |
Come See Me in the Good Light | 1% | 50% |
Cutting through Rocks | 1% | 50% |
The Alabama Solution | 1% | 50% |
The Perfect Neighbor | 1% | 50% |
Odds are influenced by critical reviews, audience reception, and the film's performance at various film festivals leading up to the Oscars.
Winning can enhance a filmmaker's reputation, increase future project funding, and provide broader distribution opportunities for their work.
The Oscars 2026 ceremony is scheduled for March 15, 2026, celebrating achievements in film from the previous year.
Oscars 2026: Best Documentary Feature Film Winner was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Mr. Nobody against Putin led the market at 100% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Come See Me in the Good Light at 26%, Cutting through Rocks at 26%, The Alabama Solution at 26%.
Mr. Nobody against Putin held the lead at 100% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Mr. Nobody against Putin, Come See Me in the Good Light at 26% and Cutting through Rocks at 26% and The Alabama Solution at 26% were the next closest contenders. The 49.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf The Alabama Solution has won Best Documentary Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
**This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. Any references to the Academy Awards, the Oscars®, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences and Kalshi.** The 98th Academy Awards are expected to be held on March 15, 2026.
PolymarketThe Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed movie that wins the 98th Academy Award for Best Documentary Feature Film. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Documentary Feature Film when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mr. Nobody against Putin
99.5% avg
