Live prediction market odds for Oscars 2026: Best International Feature Film Nominations. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-03-15
This market resolved on 2026-03-15. Sentimental Value was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 100%.
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the nominations for Best International Feature Film at the 2026 Oscars. This category highlights global cinema, influencing industry trends and audience interest in international storytelling.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Sentimental ValueWINNER | 99% | 100% |
The Voice of Hind Rajab | 99% | 100% |
The Secret Agent | 98% | 100% |
It Was Just an Accident | 91% | 100% |
Belén | 3% | 50% |
Left-Handed Girl | 1% | 50% |
No Other Choice | 1% | 50% |
Nominations are often influenced by film festival performances, critical acclaim, and the political landscape of the countries submitting films. Additionally, industry voting patterns and promotional campaigns can sway nominations.
Prediction markets adjust odds based on emerging information such as film reviews, box office performance, and industry buzz. As films gain traction or face setbacks, the odds can shift significantly.
The nominations for the 2026 Oscars are typically announced a few weeks before the ceremony, which is scheduled for March 15, 2026. This timing allows for final voting and consideration of films released in the preceding year.
Oscars 2026: Best International Feature Film Nominations was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Sentimental Value led the market at 100% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include The Voice of Hind Rajab at 100%, The Secret Agent at 99%, It Was Just an Accident at 96%.
Sentimental Value held the lead at 100% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Sentimental Value, The Voice of Hind Rajab at 100% and The Secret Agent at 99% and It Was Just an Accident at 96% were the next closest contenders. The 49.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf It Was Just an Accident has been nominated for International feature film at the 98th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
The 98th Academy Awards Nominations are expected to be announced in January 2025.
PolymarketThe Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed movie is nominated for the 98th Academy Award for Best International Feature Film. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Animated Feature Film when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sentimental Value
99.5% avg
