Live prediction market odds for Oscars 2026: Best International Feature Film Winner. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-03-15
This market resolved on 2026-03-15. Sentimental Value was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 100%.
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the Oscars 2026 for Best International Feature Film Winner. This category highlights global cinema and can influence industry trends, showcasing the cultural impact of international films on a wider audience.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Sentimental ValueWINNER | 99% | 100% |
It Was Just an Accident | 1% | 50% |
The Secret Agent | 1% | 50% |
The Voice of Hind Rajab | 1% | 50% |
Factors include critical acclaim, box office performance, and awards from other film festivals. Additionally, industry buzz and campaigning efforts by filmmakers can sway opinions.
Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of outcomes. Prices reflect the collective sentiment about the likelihood of various films winning.
This category recognizes outstanding films produced outside the United States, promoting cultural diversity in cinema. It also serves as a platform for international filmmakers to gain recognition.
Oscars 2026: Best International Feature Film Winner was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Sentimental Value led the market at 100% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include It Was Just an Accident at 26%, The Secret Agent at 26%, The Voice of Hind Rajab at 26%.
Sentimental Value held the lead at 100% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Sentimental Value, It Was Just an Accident at 26% and The Secret Agent at 26% and The Voice of Hind Rajab at 26% were the next closest contenders. The 49.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf The Secret Agent has won Best International Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
**This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. Any references to the Academy Awards, the Oscars®, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences and Kalshi.** The 98th Academy Awards are expected to be held on March 15, 2026.
PolymarketThe Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed movie that wins the 98th Academy Award for Best International Feature Film. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best International Feature Film when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sentimental Value
99.5% avg
