Live prediction market odds for Oscars 2026: Best Visual Effects Winner. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-03-15
This market resolved on 2026-03-15. Avatar: Fire and Ash was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 100%.
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the Best Visual Effects winner at the 2026 Oscars. This event is pivotal as it highlights advancements in filmmaking technology and influences industry trends and future projects.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Avatar: Fire and AshWINNER | 99% | 100% |
F1 | 1% | 50% |
Jurassic World Rebirth | 1% | 50% |
Sinners | 1% | 50% |
The Lost Bus | 1% | 50% |
Odds are influenced by factors such as critical reviews, audience reception, and the technical achievements of the nominated films. Additionally, industry buzz and awards from other ceremonies can impact predictions.
Winning an Oscar in this category can significantly boost a film's visibility and box office performance. It also sets benchmarks for visual effects standards in future productions.
The Oscars 2026 ceremony is scheduled for March 15, 2026. This date marks the culmination of the awards season for the film industry.
Oscars 2026: Best Visual Effects Winner was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Avatar: Fire and Ash led the market at 100% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include F1 at 26%, Jurassic World Rebirth at 26%, Sinners at 26%.
Avatar: Fire and Ash held the lead at 100% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1 at 26% and Jurassic World Rebirth at 26% and Sinners at 26% were the next closest contenders. The 49.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Avatar: Fire and Ash has won Best Visual Effects at the 98th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
**This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. Any references to the Academy Awards, the Oscars®, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences and Kalshi.** The 98th Academy Awards are expected to be held on March 15, 2026.
PolymarketThe Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed movie that wins the 98th Academy Award for Best Visual Effects. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Visual Effects when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Avatar: Fire and Ash
99.5% avg
