Live prediction market odds for Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-02-14
This market resolved on 2026-02-14. Real Madrid CF was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 100%.
This market has resolved.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Real Madrid CFWINNER | 99% | 100% |
Draw (Real Madrid CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol | 99% | 50% |
Real Sociedad de Fútbol | 1% | 50% |
Tie | 1% | 50% |
Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Real Madrid CF led the market at 100% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Draw (Real Madrid CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol at 75%, Real Sociedad de Fútbol at 26%, Tie at 26%.
Real Madrid CF held the lead at 100% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Real Madrid CF, Draw (Real Madrid CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol at 75% and Real Sociedad de Fútbol at 26% and Tie at 26% were the next closest contenders. The 49.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Real Madrid CF: 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. Draw (Real Madrid CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: 99¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: 1¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. Tie: 1¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. The 49.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 100¢ meant the market estimated a 100% chance that Real Madrid CF would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 100¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 0% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
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Real Madrid CF
99.5% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf Real Madrid wins the Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad professional La Liga soccer game originally scheduled for Feb 14, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad professional La Liga soccer game originally scheduled for Feb 14, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties). If the game ends in a tie, the market called "Tie" resolves to Yes. If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to over two weeks away, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules.
