Nepal Wins: Scotland vs Nepal

Scotland vs Nepal was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Nepal led the market at 74% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Scotland at 26%.

Nepal held the lead at 74% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Nepal, Scotland at 26% were the next closest contenders. The 49.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Nepal: 99¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. Scotland: 1¢ on Kalshi, 51¢ on Polymarket. The 49.5% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.

A price of 74¢ meant the market estimated a 74% chance that Nepal would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 74¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 35% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.