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Live prediction market odds for TN-09 House Election Winner. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

Kalshi

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket

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TN-09 House Election Winner

2026-11-03

Best price · tap to trade

Brent Taylor (R)86¢1.16xPolymarket USJustin J. Pearson (D)15¢6.67xKalshi

About This Market

Traders give Brent Taylor (R) about a 86.7% chance. Justin J. Pearson (D) follows at 13.3%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 3.5 percentage points.

Traders give Brent Taylor (R) about a 86.7% chance. Justin J. Pearson (D) follows at 13.3%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 3.5 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the TN-09 House Election Winner for the upcoming 2026 election. This race is crucial as it could influence the balance of power in Congress and reflect voter sentiment on key issues leading up to the election.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
BT
Brent Taylor (R)
87%
Kalshi88¢
Polymarket US86¢
Polymarket89¢
Polymarket US1.16x86¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
87.0%86¢88¢12¢14¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
85.0%85¢86¢14¢15¢
PolymarketPolymarket
88.0%87¢89¢11¢13¢
JJ
Justin J. Pearson (D)
13%
Kalshi15¢
—
Polymarket12¢
Kalshi6.67x15¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
15.0%12¢15¢85¢88¢
PolymarketPolymarket
11.5%11¢12¢88¢89¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Brent Taylor (R)

Brent Taylor is a Republican member of the Tennessee Senate, representing District 31 since January 2023. He previously served as a funeral director and was elected to the Memphis City Council in 1995 at age 27. Taylor is known for his tough-on-crime stance and support for legislation removing bail for major capital crimes.

About Justin J. Pearson (D)

Justin J. Pearson is a Democratic member of the Tennessee House of Representatives, representing District 86. He co-founded Memphis Community Against Pollution, successfully halting the Byhalia Pipeline project. Pearson is challenging incumbent U.S. Representative Steve Cohen in the 2026 Democratic primary for Tennessee's 9th congressional district.

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
PolymarketPolymarket
UMA Optimistic Oraclefec.govConsensus of Sources
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread3.5%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

Brent Taylor (R)

86.7% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: TN-09 House Election Winner

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for TN-09 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
PolymarketPolymarket
Primary Rule

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic Oraclefec.govConsensus of Sources
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the TN-09 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the TN-09 House Election Winner market?

Factors include candidate popularity, campaign funding, and local issues that resonate with voters. Polling data and endorsements can also significantly impact market odds.

How often are the odds updated for this election?

Odds are updated in real-time as new information becomes available, including polling results and major campaign events. Traders actively adjust their positions based on the latest developments.

What is the significance of the TN-09 district in the election?

TN-09 is considered a bellwether district, often reflecting broader national trends. Winning this seat could provide momentum for the party that secures it, influencing future elections.

What does the TN-09 House Election Winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest TN-09 House Election Winner odds?

The latest available prices are Brent Taylor (R): 87.0¢ on Kalshi, 88.0¢ on Polymarket, 85.0¢ on Polymarket US; Justin J. Pearson (D): 15.0¢ on Kalshi, 11.5¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Swiss initiatives: September 2026

Resolved Sep 27

Final odds