About This Market
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Live prediction market odds for Toluca vs Guadalajara. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Live prediction market odds for Toluca vs Guadalajara. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Join our Discord for breaking news alerts, driven by real-time movements in prediction markets.
MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-02-28
This market resolved on 2026-02-28. Deportivo Toluca FC was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 100%.
This market has resolved.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Deportivo Toluca FCWINNER | 99% | 100% |
CD Guadalajara | 1% | 50% |
Toluca vs Guadalajara was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Deportivo Toluca FC led the market at 100% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include CD Guadalajara at 26%.
Deportivo Toluca FC held the lead at 100% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Deportivo Toluca FC, CD Guadalajara at 26% were the next closest contenders. The 49.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Deportivo Toluca FC: 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. CD Guadalajara: 1¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. The 49.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 100¢ meant the market estimated a 100% chance that Deportivo Toluca FC would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 100¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 0% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
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Deportivo Toluca FC
99.5% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf Toluca wins the Toluca vs Guadalajara professional Liga MX soccer game originally scheduled for Feb 28, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Toluca vs Guadalajara professional Liga MX soccer game originally scheduled for Feb 28, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties). If the game ends in a tie, the market called "Tie" resolves to Yes. If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to over two weeks away, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules.