Live prediction market odds for TX-18 Democratic nominee?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket and PredictIt.
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Kalshi / Polymarket / PredictIt
2026-03-03
Christian Menefee leads the “TX-18 Democratic nominee” event at 78.5% implied probability. Other contenders include Al Green (20.6%), and Amanda Edwards (0.4%). A 24.0% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
TX-18 Democratic nominee is a prediction market event currently tracked across 3 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt). Christian Menefee leads at 79% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Al Green at 21%, Amanda Edwards at 0%.
Christian Menefee currently leads at 79% implied probability. Behind Christian Menefee, Al Green at 21% and Amanda Edwards at 0% are the next closest contenders. The 24.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt: Christian Menefee: 70¢ on Kalshi, 72¢ on Polymarket, 94¢ on PredictIt. Al Green: 30¢ on Kalshi, 26¢ on Polymarket, 6¢ on PredictIt. Amanda Edwards: 1¢ on Kalshi, 0¢ on Polymarket. The 24.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 79¢ means the market estimates a 79% probability that Christian Menefee will be the outcome. Buying one share at 79¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 27% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.
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As seen on Financial Times and Polymark.et
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Christian Menefee
78.5% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf Al Green wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Texas 18th congressional district House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Please note that this market is only for the TX-18 Democratic nominee for the full term beginning in 2027.
