Live prediction market odds for US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-12-31
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the potential for a US-Iran nuclear deal to be reached before 2027. The outcome of this event could significantly impact international relations and regional stability in the Middle East, influencing global energy markets and diplomatic efforts.
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027 is priced at 40.8% implied probability for the “US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027” event. A 4.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Diplomatic negotiations, sanctions relief, and regional security concerns are key factors. Changes in leadership or policy in either country can also affect the progress of talks.
Prediction markets aggregate diverse opinions and expert analyses, providing real-time insights into the perceived likelihood of the deal. Fluctuations in odds can indicate shifts in public and political sentiment.
A successful deal could lead to reduced tensions and enhanced cooperation, while failure to reach an agreement may escalate hostilities and impact global oil prices. Both scenarios have far-reaching implications for international diplomacy.
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027 is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027 leads at 41% implied probability, making it the market favorite.
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027 currently leads at 41% implied probability. The 4.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027
40.8% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf the United States agreed to, signed, or accepted a new Iran-US nuclear deal before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
An agreement also made with other countries (i.e. multilaterally) is still encompassed if the United States participates. "A new Iran-US nuclear deal" means a formal written agreement signed by authorized representatives of both the United States and Iran that (1) imposes verifiable restrictions on Iran's nuclear program, including limits on uranium enrichment, centrifuge numbers, or nuclear facility operations, AND (2) provides for the lifting, suspension, or modification of at least one US economic sanction on Iran in exchange for Iran's nuclear commitments.
PolymarketThis market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
