About This Market
Traders give Before Jan 20, 2029 about a 39.5% chance. Before Jan 1, 2028 follows at 30.5%, Before Oct 1, 2027 follows at 25.0%, and Before Jul 1, 2027 follows at 22.0%. Compare prices from Kalshi.
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
Live prediction market odds for US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?. Compare prices across Kalshi.
Traders give Before Jan 20, 2029 about a 39.5% chance. Before Jan 1, 2028 follows at 30.5%, Before Oct 1, 2027 follows at 25.0%, and Before Jul 1, 2027 follows at 22.0%. Compare prices from Kalshi.
KalshiKalshiOfficial settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf the United States agreed to, signed, or accepted a new Iran-US nuclear deal before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
An agreement also made with other countries (i.e. multilaterally) is still encompassed if the United States participates. "A new Iran-US nuclear deal" means a formal written agreement signed by authorized representatives of both the United States and Iran that (1) imposes verifiable restrictions on Iran's nuclear program, including limits on uranium enrichment, centrifuge numbers, or nuclear facility operations, AND (2) provides for the lifting, suspension, or modification of at least one US economic sanction on Iran in exchange for Iran's nuclear commitments.
Diplomatic negotiations, sanctions relief, and regional security concerns are key factors. Changes in leadership or policy in either country can also affect the progress of talks.
Prediction markets aggregate diverse opinions and expert analyses, providing real-time insights into the perceived likelihood of the deal. Fluctuations in odds can indicate shifts in public and political sentiment.
A successful deal could lead to reduced tensions and enhanced cooperation, while failure to reach an agreement may escalate hostilities and impact global oil prices. Both scenarios have far-reaching implications for international diplomacy.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.
The latest available prices are Before Jan 20, 2029: 39.5¢ on Kalshi; Before Jan 1, 2028: 30.5¢ on Kalshi; Before Oct 1, 2027: 25.0¢ on Kalshi; Before Jul 1, 2027: 22.0¢ on Kalshi. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.