Crypto Odds Across Every Prediction Market
Bitcoin and Ethereum price markets, token launches and protocol events - live prices side by side from every platform quoting them.
Understanding Crypto Odds on Prediction Markets
A crypto prediction market is not a price feed and not a leveraged position - it is a contract on a stated question that pays $1.00 if the answer turns out to be yes and nothing if it does not, quoted in cents in between. That makes the price and the probability the same number: a contract at 30¢ is the market saying 30%. Your downside is capped at what you paid, there is no liquidation price, and no bookmaker sets the line - the number is whatever two traders last agreed on.
This page covers every matched crypto market we track: Bitcoin and Ethereum price thresholds from hourly contracts to multi-year strikes, milestone and first-to races, relative-performance markets like one asset against another, ETF and regulatory decisions, protocol and on-chain events, and token-launch valuations. Each card shows every platform currently quoting that question side by side, cheapest highlighted.
The two venues carrying most of the volume structure their books differently. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange trading in USD, and leans on dense series of dated price contracts settled against a published index. Polymarket settles in USDC, draws global crypto-native flow, and lists a much wider spread of one-off questions. Where both quote the same question, a several-cent gap is routine - but read the market rules first, because a difference in settlement source or expiry time can mean two contracts that look identical are not.
How to Read the Odds Cards Above
Each card is one question. The platform cells carry the live price at every venue quoting each outcome, and the cheapest quote is highlighted - for an identical $1.00 payoff, that is the best available buy. Prices link out to the market on the platform itself, and the card opens the full cross-platform table with price history, so a disagreement between venues is always one tap from the trade.
Cents, Implied Probability and American Odds
The same crypto price can be written three ways. Contracts quote cents, forecasters use percentages, and sportsbooks use American odds - all describing one number.
| Price | Implied | American | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4¢ | 4% | +2400 | A far-out threshold: the level is several standard deviations away |
| 12¢ | 12% | +733 | A stretch target the market takes seriously but does not expect |
| 30¢ | 30% | +233 | A live scenario - typical for a round-number level within the year |
| 50¢ | 50% | +100 | The market is at the strike: a coin flip, and the most volatile contract on the board |
| 78¢ | 78% | -355 | Likely, but a single macro print can still take it apart |
| 95¢ | 95% | -1900 | Effectively resolved; what is left is settlement risk, not price risk |
Full conversion in both directions - including decimal and fractional - in the odds converter.
Odds vs. Price Predictions
A published price prediction is one analyst's target: no capital behind it, no expiry, and no way to be scored. A contract price is the opposite on all three counts - real money on both sides, a stated settlement date, and a number that is provably right or wrong on a known day. That is the whole case for reading a board instead of a forecast. It is also why the prices here move on things a price target never accounts for: a macro print, an ETF filing, an exchange outage, a regulatory headline.
Threshold markets deserve one specific piece of care. When the spot price sits near the strike, a short-dated contract is the most volatile instrument on this entire site - the same question can travel from 20¢ to 80¢ within an hour, and back. That volatility is structural rather than a sign of mispricing: as expiry approaches, the probability has to collapse toward 0 or 100, so a small move in the underlying produces a large move in the contract. Read the expiry and the named settlement source before trading one.
The non-price half of the board is where prediction markets have the least competition. ETF approvals, enforcement outcomes, protocol upgrades shipping on time, dormant-wallet movement, launch-day valuations - these resolve on verifiable facts rather than on a candle, which means they are uncorrelated with the market-wide move and are frequently priced by far fewer participants than a BTC threshold. Thin markets cut both ways: they are the least reliable prints on the board and the ones most likely to sit stale against another venue quoting the same question.
Crypto Markets Covered on This Page
Every family below is priced across all quoting platforms in the grid above.
Bitcoin Price Thresholds
Will BTC be above or below a given level at a given time - hourly and daily contracts on one side, year-end and multi-year strikes on the other. These are the highest-volume crypto contracts anywhere, and the short-dated ones are the fastest-moving markets we track in any category.
Ethereum & Major Alts
The same threshold structure on ETH, SOL, XRP and whichever majors platforms are listing. Alt contracts trade thinner than BTC and lag it on news, which is where cross-platform gaps open up.
Milestone & First-To Markets
Round-number milestones and race markets - whether an asset reaches a level at all, or which of two levels it touches first. First-to contracts are a cleaner way to trade a path than a single threshold, because they price sequence rather than endpoint.
Relative Performance
One asset against another: BTC versus gold or equities, ETH against BTC, dominance and flippening markets. These strip out the market-wide move and price only the spread, which makes them the purest expression of a rotation view.
ETFs, Regulation & Policy
Approval decisions, listing deadlines, enforcement outcomes and legislative milestones. Dated, binary and driven by process rather than price, so they reprice on filings and calendars rather than on candles.
Protocol & Network Events
Upgrades shipping on time, hashrate and difficulty thresholds, dormant-wallet movement, and other on-chain questions with a verifiable answer. The most genuinely uncorrelated markets in crypto - they resolve on chain state, not on price.
Token Launches & FDV
Whether a new token clears a fully diluted valuation on launch day, and where it lists. Short-lived, thin and among the most aggressively mispriced contracts on any platform.
Tools & Resources
Arbitrage scanner
Cross-platform price gaps wide enough to lock in both sides.
Smart money feed
Large positions as they hit, by wallet track record.
Trending markets
What is moving fastest across every platform right now.
Odds converter
Cents, implied probability, American, decimal and fractional.
Expected value calculator
Whether a price beats your own estimate of the outcome.
Market-move news
Written the moment a crypto contract reprices, with the move in the headline.
Crypto Prediction Markets - Frequently Asked Questions
How do crypto prediction markets work?+
Can I compare Polymarket and Kalshi crypto odds side by side?+
How is this different from a Bitcoin price prediction article?+
What are Bitcoin threshold markets and how do they settle?+
Which crypto markets do prediction markets cover besides price?+
Why do crypto contract prices differ between platforms?+
Are crypto prediction markets legal in the US?+
How This Page Works
Prices come from each platform's own API and refresh at least once a minute. Contracts are quoted in cents and shown as implied probabilities, so a 30¢ price reads as 30%. Each platform settles against its own named reference source - check the market rules on the venue before trading. Only markets matched across platforms appear here, and a market drops off the page when no platform is quoting it - an empty topic means no live market rather than an error. Availability, eligibility and legality vary by platform and by state. This page is informational and is not investment, trading or betting advice.