A crypto prediction market is not a price feed and not a leveraged position - it is a contract on a stated question that pays $1.00 if the answer turns out to be yes and nothing if it does not, quoted in cents in between. That makes the price and the probability the same number: a contract at 30¢ is the market saying 30%. Your downside is capped at what you paid, there is no liquidation price, and no bookmaker sets the line - the number is whatever two traders last agreed on.

This page covers every matched crypto market we track: Bitcoin and Ethereum price thresholds from hourly contracts to multi-year strikes, milestone and first-to races, relative-performance markets like one asset against another, ETF and regulatory decisions, protocol and on-chain events, and token-launch valuations. Each card shows every platform currently quoting that question side by side, cheapest highlighted.

The two venues carrying most of the volume structure their books differently. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange trading in USD, and leans on dense series of dated price contracts settled against a published index. Polymarket settles in USDC, draws global crypto-native flow, and lists a much wider spread of one-off questions. Where both quote the same question, a several-cent gap is routine - but read the market rules first, because a difference in settlement source or expiry time can mean two contracts that look identical are not.

How to Read the Odds Cards Above

Each card is one question. The platform cells carry the live price at every venue quoting each outcome, and the cheapest quote is highlighted - for an identical $1.00 payoff, that is the best available buy. Prices link out to the market on the platform itself, and the card opens the full cross-platform table with price history, so a disagreement between venues is always one tap from the trade.

Cents, Implied Probability and American Odds

The same crypto price can be written three ways. Contracts quote cents, forecasters use percentages, and sportsbooks use American odds - all describing one number.

Crypto contract price converted to implied probability and American odds
Price	Implied	American	What it means
4¢	4%	+2400	A far-out threshold: the level is several standard deviations away
12¢	12%	+733	A stretch target the market takes seriously but does not expect
30¢	30%	+233	A live scenario - typical for a round-number level within the year
50¢	50%	+100	The market is at the strike: a coin flip, and the most volatile contract on the board
78¢	78%	-355	Likely, but a single macro print can still take it apart
95¢	95%	-1900	Effectively resolved; what is left is settlement risk, not price risk

Full conversion in both directions - including decimal and fractional - in the odds converter.

Odds vs. Price Predictions

A published price prediction is one analyst's target: no capital behind it, no expiry, and no way to be scored. A contract price is the opposite on all three counts - real money on both sides, a stated settlement date, and a number that is provably right or wrong on a known day. That is the whole case for reading a board instead of a forecast. It is also why the prices here move on things a price target never accounts for: a macro print, an ETF filing, an exchange outage, a regulatory headline.

Threshold markets deserve one specific piece of care. When the spot price sits near the strike, a short-dated contract is the most volatile instrument on this entire site - the same question can travel from 20¢ to 80¢ within an hour, and back. That volatility is structural rather than a sign of mispricing: as expiry approaches, the probability has to collapse toward 0 or 100, so a small move in the underlying produces a large move in the contract. Read the expiry and the named settlement source before trading one. The 15-minute Bitcoin Up or Down window on Kalshi and Polymarket, where the strike is wherever Bitcoin started the window, has its own live tracker.

The non-price half of the board is where prediction markets have the least competition. ETF approvals, enforcement outcomes, protocol upgrades shipping on time, dormant-wallet movement, launch-day valuations - these resolve on verifiable facts rather than on a candle, which means they are uncorrelated with the market-wide move and are frequently priced by far fewer participants than a BTC threshold. Thin markets cut both ways: they are the least reliable prints on the board and the ones most likely to sit stale against another venue quoting the same question.

Crypto Markets Covered on This Page

Every family below is priced across all quoting platforms in the grid above.

Bitcoin Price Thresholds

Will BTC be above or below a given level at a given time - hourly and daily contracts on one side, year-end and multi-year strikes on the other. These are the highest-volume crypto contracts anywhere, and the short-dated ones are the fastest-moving markets we track in any category.

Ethereum & Major Alts

The same threshold structure on ETH, SOL, XRP and whichever majors platforms are listing. Alt contracts trade thinner than BTC and lag it on news, which is where cross-platform gaps open up.

Milestone & First-To Markets

Round-number milestones and race markets - whether an asset reaches a level at all, or which of two levels it touches first. First-to contracts are a cleaner way to trade a path than a single threshold, because they price sequence rather than endpoint.

Relative Performance

One asset against another: BTC versus gold or equities, ETH against BTC, dominance and flippening markets. These strip out the market-wide move and price only the spread, which makes them the purest expression of a rotation view.

ETFs, Regulation & Policy

Approval decisions, listing deadlines, enforcement outcomes and legislative milestones. Dated, binary and driven by process rather than price, so they reprice on filings and calendars rather than on candles.

Protocol & Network Events

Upgrades shipping on time, hashrate and difficulty thresholds, dormant-wallet movement, and other on-chain questions with a verifiable answer. The most genuinely uncorrelated markets in crypto - they resolve on chain state, not on price.

Token Launches & FDV

Whether a new token clears a fully diluted valuation on launch day, and where it lists. Short-lived, thin and among the most aggressively mispriced contracts on any platform.

Tools & Resources

Arbitrage scanner

Cross-platform price gaps wide enough to lock in both sides.

Smart money feed

Large positions as they hit, by wallet track record.

Trending markets

What is moving fastest across every platform right now.

Odds converter

Cents, implied probability, American, decimal and fractional.

Expected value calculator

Whether a price beats your own estimate of the outcome.

Market-move news

Written the moment a crypto contract reprices, with the move in the headline.

Crypto Prediction Markets - Frequently Asked Questions

How do crypto prediction markets work?+

Every question trades as a contract that pays $1.00 if it resolves yes and nothing if it resolves no, priced in cents in between. The price is the probability: a contract on Bitcoin closing above some level at 30¢ is the market saying 30%. You are not buying the asset and you are not using leverage - you are buying a fixed payoff on a stated outcome, with your loss capped at what you paid.

Can I compare Polymarket and Kalshi crypto odds side by side?+

Yes - that is what this page is. Each card shows the live price at every platform quoting that contract, with the cheapest highlighted. Kalshi and Polymarket both run deep crypto books but structure them differently: Kalshi leans on frequent dated price contracts settled against a published index, Polymarket lists a wider spread of one-off questions. Where both quote the same question, a gap of several cents is common and the cheaper side is the better entry for an identical payoff.

How is this different from a Bitcoin price prediction article?+

A price-prediction article is one analyst’s target with no money behind it and no expiry. These are live contracts with capital on both sides and a defined settlement date, so the number updates continuously and is falsifiable on a known day. If you want a view, read a forecast; if you want the market’s current probability, read the board above.

What are Bitcoin threshold markets and how do they settle?+

A threshold contract asks whether an asset is above or below a stated level at a stated time. Platforms settle them against a published reference price - Kalshi uses an index provider, and each venue names its source in the market rules - rather than against whatever a single exchange printed. Short-dated contracts near the strike are the most volatile markets we track: the same question can swing from 20¢ to 80¢ in an hour, which is exactly why the settlement source is worth reading before you trade.

Which crypto markets do prediction markets cover besides price?+

The non-price markets are often the more interesting half of the board: ETF and regulatory decisions, protocol upgrades shipping on schedule, hashrate and difficulty thresholds, dormant-wallet movement, token launch valuations, and relative-performance questions like one asset outperforming another. These resolve on verifiable facts rather than on a candle, which makes them behave quite differently from a price threshold.

Why do crypto contract prices differ between platforms?+

Different collateral, different fee schedules, different trader pools. Polymarket settles in USDC and draws global crypto-native flow; Kalshi trades in USD on a CFTC-regulated US exchange with heavier retail participation. Even when two venues write the same question, small differences in the settlement source or expiry time make the contracts genuinely non-identical - worth checking on the platform itself before treating a wide spread as free money.

Are crypto prediction markets legal in the US?+

Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US designated contract market and lists its crypto contracts under that framework. Polymarket settles in USDC, draws global participation, and its US availability has changed over time. Eligibility and availability vary by platform and by state, so check the venue itself. This page is informational and is not investment, trading or betting advice.

How This Page Works

Prices come from each platform's own API and refresh at least once a minute. Contracts are quoted in cents and shown as implied probabilities, so a 30¢ price reads as 30%. Each platform settles against its own named reference source - check the market rules on the venue before trading. Only markets matched across platforms appear here, and a market drops off the page when no platform is quoting it - an empty topic means no live market rather than an error. Availability, eligibility and legality vary by platform and by state. This page is informational and is not investment, trading or betting advice.