Markets from the last 30 days that have resolved. Each page keeps the closing prices from every platform that quoted it, so you can see how the markets called it.

Looking for older results? Browse the results archive.

Understanding Election Odds on Prediction Markets

Election odds on a prediction market are not a bookmaker's line - they are the last traded price of a contract, set by the people willing to buy and sell it. Every outcome on this page trades as its own contract that pays $1.00 if it happens and nothing if it does not, quoted in cents in between. That makes the price and the probability the same number: a candidate at 35¢ is the market saying 35%, with no vig to strip out first. It is why forecasters and newsrooms quote these prices as probabilities directly, and why comparing one to a sportsbook's +186 means comparing a clean number against one with margin folded in.

This page covers every matched political market we track, across Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt and the rest: House and Senate control, the generic ballot, individual Senate seats, congressional districts, governor races, party primaries and nominee fields, the 2028 presidential cycle, and elections outside the US. Each card shows every platform currently quoting that race side by side, cheapest highlighted.

Those platforms are genuinely different instruments. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US designated contract market trading in USD, and lists election contracts under that framework. Polymarket settles in USDC, draws global participation, and usually carries the deepest books on marquee races. PredictIt caps position sizes, which reliably leaves its prices a little stickier than the others. A two- to five-cent spread on the same Senate seat is routine; a wider one on a liquid market means the cheaper side is the better entry for an identical payoff.

How to Read the Odds Cards Above

Each card is one race. The platform cells carry the live price at every venue quoting each candidate or party, and the cheapest quote is highlighted - for an identical $1.00 payoff, that is the best available buy. Prices link out to the market on the platform itself, and the card opens the full cross-platform table with price history, so a disagreement between venues is always one tap from the trade. Use the sub-topic pills above the board to narrow to a chamber, a cycle or a region.

Cents, Implied Probability and American Odds

The same election price can be written three ways. Contracts quote cents, forecasters use percentages, and sportsbooks use American odds - all describing one number.

Election contract price converted to implied probability and American odds
Price	Implied	American	What it means
5¢	5%	+1900	A long-shot primary candidate with name recognition and little else
20¢	20%	+400	A live underdog - a challenger the market takes seriously
35¢	35%	+186	The trailing side of a competitive statewide race
50¢	50%	+100	A genuine toss-up: chamber control the summer before a midterm
70¢	70%	-233	Clear favorite, but one scandal or retirement from a real race
92¢	92%	-1150	A safe seat - the market has priced the result and moved on

Full conversion in both directions - including decimal and fractional - in the odds converter.

Odds vs. Polls: What a Market Price Actually Tells You

A poll estimates opinion at the moment it was fielded. A market price aggregates money-weighted expectations about the result - turnout, candidate quality, ballot access, legal risk and everything else a topline number leaves out. The practical difference is speed: a market reprices within minutes of a retirement, an indictment or a debate, where a polling average needs days to absorb the same news. That gap is the reason a political desk watches these boards.

The honest caveat is liquidity. Chamber-control and presidential contracts trade heavily and behave like real prices; an obscure primary or a single congressional district can sit on a handful of traders, where the last print says more about who happened to be online than about the race. Before you read anything into a thin market, check whether more than one platform is quoting it - agreement across venues is the cheapest sanity check there is.

International races are where this page tends to be most useful. Foreign elections get sparse English-language polling and almost no odds coverage, so a live cross-platform price is often the only continuously updated number available - which is why our deepest political coverage sits under international election odds.

Election Markets Covered on This Page

Every family below is priced across all quoting platforms in the grid above, and has its own page with the board narrowed to it.

2026 Midterms

The whole cycle in one lens: House and Senate control, the generic ballot, wave-scenario markets and every statewide race on the November map. Control markets are the ones that move on national news; individual races move on candidate news.

Senate Races

Chamber control plus each individual state contest, party primary and nominee market. With a handful of seats deciding control, a single state price and the control price often move in lockstep - when they stop, one of them is wrong.

House Races

Control of the chamber, the generic ballot, and the individual district markets that platforms list by district code. District contracts are thin and jumpy; the control market is the liquid one.

Governor Races

Every gubernatorial contest we track, general elections and primaries alike. Governor markets reward local information more than any other political family - statewide races routinely price differently from the national mood.

2028 Presidential

Democratic and Republican nominee races, which-party-wins, and the general election itself. Nominee fields carry twenty or more contracts at once, so the sum of every candidate is a live read on how much of the field the market thinks is still undecided.

International Elections

Presidential and parliamentary races, leadership contests, by-elections and national referendums outside the US. Foreign races are where prediction markets most often beat published polling averages, because a market reprices the day news breaks rather than the week a pollster finishes fielding.

Tools & Resources

Politics odds

Legislation, appointments, court rulings and world leaders, priced side by side.

Market-move news

Written the moment a political price moves, with the move in the headline.

Arbitrage scanner

Cross-platform price gaps wide enough to lock in both sides.

Odds converter

Cents, implied probability, American, decimal and fractional.

Smart money feed

Large positions as they hit, by wallet track record.

Trending markets

What is moving fastest across every platform right now.

Election Odds - Frequently Asked Questions

How do election odds work on a prediction market?+

Every outcome trades as a contract that pays $1.00 if it happens and nothing if it does not, priced in cents in between. The price is the probability: a candidate at 35¢ is the market saying 35%. There is no bookmaker setting a line and no vig baked in - the number you see is what traders are willing to pay, which is why forecasters quote prediction-market prices as probabilities directly.

Can I compare Polymarket, Kalshi and PredictIt election odds side by side?+

Yes - that is what this page is. Each card shows the live price at every platform quoting that race, with the cheapest highlighted. The same Senate seat routinely trades two to five cents apart between venues, and on state races and primaries the gap can be wider still, because each platform has a different pool of traders paying attention to that contest.

Are election prediction markets legal in the US?+

Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US designated contract market and lists election contracts under that regulatory framework. PredictIt operates under its own long-standing arrangement with the CFTC. Polymarket settles in USDC and draws global participation, with US availability that has changed over time. Availability and eligibility vary by platform and by state, so check the venue itself before trading; this page is informational and is not betting or investment advice.

Are election odds more accurate than polls?+

They answer a different question. A poll estimates opinion at the moment it was fielded; a market price aggregates money-weighted expectations about the result, including turnout, candidate quality and everything else a poll does not capture. Markets reprice within minutes of news where polling averages take days, which is their real edge - and they can also stay wrong for long stretches when a race is thin and no one is trading it.

Why do the same election odds differ between platforms?+

Different trader pools, different fee structures, different collateral. Polymarket settles in USDC and attracts international flow; Kalshi trades in USD and skews US-retail; PredictIt has position caps that keep large traders from pushing a price. Those frictions stop the prices converging, which is exactly why a cross-platform view is worth having: for an identical payoff, the cheaper quote is simply a better entry.

What are control markets and how do they differ from individual races?+

Control markets price which party holds the House or the Senate after the election - one contract that depends on dozens of races at once. They are the most liquid political contracts on any platform, and they move on national signals like the generic ballot. Individual race markets move on candidate-level news. When a state price moves hard and the control price does not follow, the market is saying that seat does not change who runs the chamber.

How often do the prices on this page update?+

Prices come from each platform’s own API and refresh at least once a minute, so the board reflects the live market rather than a stored snapshot. Election markets are slow for months and then reprice violently around debates, indictments, retirements and results night - the fast moves are the ones this page exists to catch.

How This Page Works

Prices come from each platform's own API and refresh at least once a minute. Contracts are quoted in cents and shown as implied probabilities, so a 35¢ price reads as 35%. Only markets matched across platforms appear here, and a race drops off the page when no platform is quoting it - an empty topic means no live market rather than an error. Market availability, eligibility and legality vary by platform and by state. This page is informational and is not betting or investment advice.