Election Odds Across Every Prediction Market
Presidential, congressional, gubernatorial and international races - live prices side by side from every platform quoting them.
Understanding Election Odds on Prediction Markets
Election odds on a prediction market are not a bookmaker's line - they are the last traded price of a contract, set by the people willing to buy and sell it. Every outcome on this page trades as its own contract that pays $1.00 if it happens and nothing if it does not, quoted in cents in between. That makes the price and the probability the same number: a candidate at 35¢ is the market saying 35%, with no vig to strip out first. It is why forecasters and newsrooms quote these prices as probabilities directly, and why comparing one to a sportsbook's +186 means comparing a clean number against one with margin folded in.
This page covers every matched political market we track, across Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt and the rest: House and Senate control, the generic ballot, individual Senate seats, congressional districts, governor races, party primaries and nominee fields, the 2028 presidential cycle, and elections outside the US. Each card shows every platform currently quoting that race side by side, cheapest highlighted.
Those platforms are genuinely different instruments. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US designated contract market trading in USD, and lists election contracts under that framework. Polymarket settles in USDC, draws global participation, and usually carries the deepest books on marquee races. PredictIt caps position sizes, which reliably leaves its prices a little stickier than the others. A two- to five-cent spread on the same Senate seat is routine; a wider one on a liquid market means the cheaper side is the better entry for an identical payoff.
How to Read the Odds Cards Above
Each card is one race. The platform cells carry the live price at every venue quoting each candidate or party, and the cheapest quote is highlighted - for an identical $1.00 payoff, that is the best available buy. Prices link out to the market on the platform itself, and the card opens the full cross-platform table with price history, so a disagreement between venues is always one tap from the trade. Use the sub-topic pills above the board to narrow to a chamber, a cycle or a region.
Cents, Implied Probability and American Odds
The same election price can be written three ways. Contracts quote cents, forecasters use percentages, and sportsbooks use American odds - all describing one number.
| Price | Implied | American | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5¢ | 5% | +1900 | A long-shot primary candidate with name recognition and little else |
| 20¢ | 20% | +400 | A live underdog - a challenger the market takes seriously |
| 35¢ | 35% | +186 | The trailing side of a competitive statewide race |
| 50¢ | 50% | +100 | A genuine toss-up: chamber control the summer before a midterm |
| 70¢ | 70% | -233 | Clear favorite, but one scandal or retirement from a real race |
| 92¢ | 92% | -1150 | A safe seat - the market has priced the result and moved on |
Full conversion in both directions - including decimal and fractional - in the odds converter.
Odds vs. Polls: What a Market Price Actually Tells You
A poll estimates opinion at the moment it was fielded. A market price aggregates money-weighted expectations about the result - turnout, candidate quality, ballot access, legal risk and everything else a topline number leaves out. The practical difference is speed: a market reprices within minutes of a retirement, an indictment or a debate, where a polling average needs days to absorb the same news. That gap is the reason a political desk watches these boards.
The honest caveat is liquidity. Chamber-control and presidential contracts trade heavily and behave like real prices; an obscure primary or a single congressional district can sit on a handful of traders, where the last print says more about who happened to be online than about the race. Before you read anything into a thin market, check whether more than one platform is quoting it - agreement across venues is the cheapest sanity check there is.
International races are where this page tends to be most useful. Foreign elections get sparse English-language polling and almost no odds coverage, so a live cross-platform price is often the only continuously updated number available - which is why our deepest political coverage sits under international election odds.
Election Markets Covered on This Page
Every family below is priced across all quoting platforms in the grid above, and has its own page with the board narrowed to it.
2026 Midterms
The whole cycle in one lens: House and Senate control, the generic ballot, wave-scenario markets and every statewide race on the November map. Control markets are the ones that move on national news; individual races move on candidate news.
Senate Races
Chamber control plus each individual state contest, party primary and nominee market. With a handful of seats deciding control, a single state price and the control price often move in lockstep - when they stop, one of them is wrong.
House Races
Control of the chamber, the generic ballot, and the individual district markets that platforms list by district code. District contracts are thin and jumpy; the control market is the liquid one.
Governor Races
Every gubernatorial contest we track, general elections and primaries alike. Governor markets reward local information more than any other political family - statewide races routinely price differently from the national mood.
2028 Presidential
Democratic and Republican nominee races, which-party-wins, and the general election itself. Nominee fields carry twenty or more contracts at once, so the sum of every candidate is a live read on how much of the field the market thinks is still undecided.
International Elections
Presidential and parliamentary races, leadership contests, by-elections and national referendums outside the US. Foreign races are where prediction markets most often beat published polling averages, because a market reprices the day news breaks rather than the week a pollster finishes fielding.
Tools & Resources
US presidential hub
The presidential cycle in depth: nominees, party win and general election.
Market-move news
Written the moment a political price moves, with the move in the headline.
Arbitrage scanner
Cross-platform price gaps wide enough to lock in both sides.
Odds converter
Cents, implied probability, American, decimal and fractional.
Smart money feed
Large positions as they hit, by wallet track record.
Trending markets
What is moving fastest across every platform right now.
Election Odds - Frequently Asked Questions
How do election odds work on a prediction market?+
Can I compare Polymarket, Kalshi and PredictIt election odds side by side?+
Are election prediction markets legal in the US?+
Are election odds more accurate than polls?+
Why do the same election odds differ between platforms?+
What are control markets and how do they differ from individual races?+
How often do the prices on this page update?+
How This Page Works
Prices come from each platform's own API and refresh at least once a minute. Contracts are quoted in cents and shown as implied probabilities, so a 35¢ price reads as 35%. Only markets matched across platforms appear here, and a race drops off the page when no platform is quoting it - an empty topic means no live market rather than an error. Market availability, eligibility and legality vary by platform and by state. This page is informational and is not betting or investment advice.