Prediction Hunt

College Football Game Odds Across Every Prediction Market

This week’s slate - every listed FBS matchup priced side by side from every platform quoting it, from the Week 0 kickoff through the conference championships.

Understanding College Football Odds on Prediction Markets

College football odds on a prediction market are not lines set by a bookmaker - they are the last traded price of a contract, set by whoever is willing to buy and sell it. Every outcome on this board trades as its own contract that pays $1.00 if it happens and nothing if it does not, quoted in cents in between. That makes the price and the probability the same number: a team at 73¢ to win is the market saying 73%, with no vig to strip out first. A sportsbook writes the same idea as −270 with margin folded into the number.

This page is the week in front of you: every listed FBS matchup on the current slate, priced across every platform quoting it, from the Week 0 kickoff through rivalry week and the conference championships. Platforms list college football selectively - ranked matchups and conference showdowns first, the broader slate closer to Saturday - so the board grows through the week as listings post, and an empty stretch between slates means no live market rather than an error.

Two venues carry most of the volume. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange trading in USD and lists per-game college football moneylines. Polymarket settles in USDC, draws global participation and carries the deep season-long college football markets, with per-game coverage typically arriving nearer kickoff. Where both quote the same game, the cheaper price for an identical payoff is simply the better entry - and the thinner the game, the wider those gaps run.

Every Game Opens Its Own Matchup Page

Each card on this board is one game, and tapping it opens that matchup page: the full cross-platform table, price history for each side, and how the market has moved since the game listed. Use the board to scan the slate and the matchup page to work out whether a specific game is priced wrong. Prices in the platform cells link straight out to the market on the venue itself, and the cheapest quote is highlighted.

Contract Price, Implied Probability and the College Spread

Game-week searchers think in spreads; these contracts quote probability. The table below bridges the two - and the college mapping is not the NFL mapping. Margins in college football are more dispersed, so the same win probability corresponds to a bigger spread, and a college Saturday routinely carries favorites priced past 90¢ - the territory of 24-point lines, which an NFL slate almost never reaches. The spread column is approximate on purpose: the same number of points implies a slightly different win probability depending on the game total.

College football contract price converted to implied probability, American odds and the approximate point spread
PriceImpliedAmerican
25¢25%+300
40¢40%+150
50¢50%+100
60¢60%-150
73¢73%-270
88¢88%-733
95¢95%-1900

Full conversion in both directions - including decimal and fractional - in the odds converter.

When College Football Prices Actually Move

Week to week, a game contract firms up from midweek as depth-chart and injury news lands, then moves fastest in the hour before kickoff. The college calendar adds a second clock the NFL does not have: from late October, the playoff committee's Tuesday rankings reprice every playoff-relevant team overnight - a two-spot drop can move a championship-path price more than a win does. And because one Saturday result cascades through conference races, the title field and the Heisman market at once, the hours after a ranked upset are when the whole board repricing is worth watching.

In-game, college football swings harder than the NFL - more possessions, more variance, more three-score comebacks - so where platforms list live markets, those contracts are the fastest-moving prices on the site while a game is on.

College Football Markets Covered on This Page

Every family below is priced across all quoting platforms in the grid above, as each week's listings post.

Game winner (moneyline)

The core game-week contract: each team priced to win outright, settling at $1.00 for the winner. Because the price is the probability, a team at 73¢ is the market giving it a 73% chance - the same information a sportsbook wraps in a −270 moneyline, minus the margin.

Ranked and marquee matchups

Platforms list college football selectively: ranked-vs-ranked games, conference showdowns and the marquee non-conference schedule trade first and deepest. A top-10 matchup draws volume all week; the rest of the slate fills in closer to Saturday.

Rivalry week and conference championships

The season’s deepest slates. Rivalry games trade heavier than their spreads suggest - records matter less when the teams know each other - and the December conference championship games double as playoff eliminators, so their prices move with the committee’s Tuesday rankings as much as with the matchup.

National championship and Heisman futures

Season-long markets - every team priced to win the national title, undefeated-season contracts and the Heisman field - also surface on this board where platforms quote them. They are the season’s slowest-moving prices until a Saturday result forces a reprice across the whole field at once.

Live in-game markets

Where platforms list them, prices continue to update after kickoff. College games produce larger in-game swings than the NFL - more possessions, more variance, more 21-point comebacks - which makes live contracts the fastest-moving markets on the site while a game is on.

Cross-platform comparison

Each card shows every platform quoting that game with the cheapest price highlighted. College football is where quotes disagree most: the long tail of the slate draws thin volume, and a stale price on one venue can sit several cents from another quoting the same game.

Tools & Resources

College football futures

The season-long markets - national champion, conference races and the Heisman.

NFL game odds

The pro slate - game winners, spreads, totals and player props.

Model picks

Where our model disagrees with the market consensus.

Smart money feed

Large positions as they hit, by wallet track record.

Arbitrage scanner

Cross-platform price gaps wide enough to lock in both sides.

Odds converter

Cents, implied probability, American, decimal and fractional.

Expected value calculator

Whether a price beats your own estimate of the outcome.

College Football Odds - Frequently Asked Questions

How do college football odds work on a prediction market?+
Each outcome is a contract that settles at $1.00 if it happens and nothing if it does not, quoted in cents in between. That price is the implied probability with no conversion needed: a team at 73¢ to win is the market pricing a 73% chance. A sportsbook expresses the same idea as −270 with margin folded into the number, which is why this page shows probability instead of a moneyline - and why the conversion table above maps each price to the point spread it roughly corresponds to.
Which college football games have prediction market odds?+
Not the full 130-team schedule - platforms list selectively. Expect the ranked slate, conference showdowns and marquee non-conference games first, with coverage deepening through the season into rivalry week, the conference championships and the playoff. This board shows every FBS game the platforms we track actually quote, as each week’s listings post.
How does a contract price translate to a college football spread?+
Roughly, and the table above gives the college-specific mapping: a pick’em sits near 50¢, a 3.5-point favorite near 60¢, a 9-point favorite near 73¢, a 17-point favorite near 88¢. College margins are more dispersed than the NFL, so the same probability corresponds to a bigger spread - and unlike the NFL, a college Saturday routinely has favorites past 95¢, the territory of 24-point lines. Use it as a sanity check against a spread you saw elsewhere, not as an exact conversion.
Can I compare Kalshi and Polymarket college football odds side by side?+
Yes - that is what this page is. Each card shows the live price at every platform quoting that game, cheapest highlighted. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange trading in USD and lists per-game college football moneylines; Polymarket settles in USDC and carries the season-long college football markets, with per-game coverage typically arriving closer to kickoff. For an identical payoff, the cheaper quote is simply the better entry.
When do college football odds move the most?+
Around the Saturday slate itself, and on Tuesday nights late in the season. Week to week, prices firm up from midweek as depth-chart and injury news lands, then move fastest in the hour before kickoff. From late October, the playoff committee’s Tuesday rankings reprice playoff-relevant teams overnight - a two-spot drop can move a championship-path price more than a win does.
Where are the matchup analysis pages?+
Every game card on this board opens its own matchup page, with the full cross-platform table, price history for each side, and how the market has moved since listing. Use the board to scan the slate and the matchup page to work out whether a specific game is priced wrong.
What about national championship and Heisman odds?+
Season-long college football markets - the national title field, conference championships, undefeated-season contracts and the Heisman race - appear on this board where platforms quote them, alongside the weekly slate. The deep futures treatment, with every team priced across the season, gets its own hub page.
Are college football prediction markets the same as sports betting?+
They are structured differently. On a prediction market you buy and sell contracts against other traders on an exchange, and the venue earns fees rather than taking the other side of your position, so there is no built-in hold priced into the line the way a sportsbook builds margin into a moneyline. You can also exit a position before the game ends rather than holding to settlement. Legality and availability vary by state and platform. Nothing here is betting or investment advice.

How This Page Works

Prices come from each platform's own API and refresh at least once a minute. Contracts are quoted in cents and shown as implied probabilities, so a 73¢ price reads as 73%. Spread equivalences in the table above are approximations, not conversions. Only markets matched across platforms appear here, and a game drops off the board once it settles - an empty board between slates means no live market rather than an error. Market availability and legality vary by platform and by state. This page is informational and is not betting or investment advice.