MLB · 2026 Season
Season-long MLB markets - World Series and pennant odds, playoff qualifiers, the League Championship Series matchups, the home run and batting races, and the award markets - compared across every platform quoting them.
Who wins it all - and who takes each pennant.
Futures contracts here don't work like a sportsbook line. There's no house setting a number. The price is whatever the last buyer and seller agreed to, and it moves every time someone takes the other side. Each outcome is its own $1.00 contract. It pays a dollar if it happens, zero if it doesn't, and trades in cents everywhere in between. So a 15¢ contract on a team to win the World Series isn't a stylized "implied probability" - it is the market's probability, full stop, because there's no vig sitting inside the number the way there is behind a sportsbook's +567.
This page covers the full season arc rather than any single night: the World Series, both league pennants, playoff qualification across all 30 teams, League Championship Series matchups, the individual stat races - homers, average, RBIs, runs, steals - and the major awards. Looking for tonight's games instead? Those live on the MLB game odds board, where every matchup gets its own page.
Pricing on the same contract rarely lines up exactly across venues. Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange settling in USD, lists the broadest futures menu we track and tends to be the deepest book for stat-leader and award markets specifically. Polymarket settles in USDC, pulls in volume from outside the US, and generally holds the biggest size on the headline markets like the pennant and title races. Expect a two-to-four cent gap between them as normal - when it's wider than that on something liquid, the lower-priced side is the better buy for the same payout.
The same futures price can be written three ways. Contracts quote cents, forecasters use percentages, and sportsbooks use American odds - all describing one number.
| Price | Implied | American | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5¢ | 5% | +1900 | Longshot - a dozen teams sit here by midsummer |
| 10¢ | 10% | +900 | Live contender, hanging in the wild-card race |
| 15¢ | 15% | +567 | Typical World Series favorite in August |
| 25¢ | 25% | +300 | Clear pennant favorite |
| 50¢ | 50% | +100 | Coin flip - common in a tight playoff race |
| 75¢ | 75% | -300 | Heavy favorite; little room left to gain |
Full conversion in both directions - including decimal and fractional - in the odds converter.
Baseball futures carry a structural discount no other major sport has: the best team in the league still has to survive three rounds of short series, and a five-game division series is close to a coin flip even for a 100-win club. That is why a dominant regular-season team rarely trades much above the high teens to win it all in August - the market is not underrating the roster, it is pricing the format. The practical read: pennant and championship prices compress toward the field in October, so the widest edges are usually found earlier in the summer, while playoff-qualifier markets still separate the contenders.
The same format math makes the ratio between a team's prices informative. Qualification is the easiest outcome, the pennant harder, the championship hardest, so the three should stack - and a team whose championship price sits close to half its pennant price is one the market expects to be favored in the World Series if it gets there.
Stat leaders settle on a leaderboard, so they trade like slow-motion races: September playing time, park effects and lineup position matter as much as talent, and a hot streak by a chaser can triple a price in a week. Award markets resolve on a vote - Cy Young, Manager of the Year and the Hank Aaron Award are decided by ballots, so narrative and team success move them as much as production does. Both families are priced by fewer traders than the championship board, which is why they stay looser for longer between platforms - and why the cheaper of two quotes on the same player is simply the better entry for an identical payoff.
Every family below is priced across all quoting platforms in the boards above.
The outright market: 30 contracts, one per team, each settling at $1.00 if that team wins the 2026 World Series. Prices are quoted in cents, so a team at 15¢ is the market saying 15%. This is the deepest MLB futures market on every platform we track, and unlike a preseason sportsbook sheet it reprices daily through the stretch run and October.
League champions - who reaches the World Series rather than who wins it. Because a pennant is a strictly easier outcome, a team’s league price is always above its championship price; the ratio between the two is a clean read on how the market rates its title odds conditional on getting there.
One contract per team to reach the postseason. In August these are the markets that move most on every series result - a division leader sits near certainty while four or five teams trade the last wild-card spots, and the daily repricing is a live standings model you can trade against.
Which two teams meet in each League Championship Series - a combinatorial market layered on the playoff bracket. Matchup contracts are thinner and swingier than the team futures they derive from, which is exactly why cross-checking them against the pennant board occasionally turns up inconsistent pricing.
Season stat races by player: the home run crown, the batting title, RBIs, runs, stolen bases, doubles and triples. This is the inventory conventional odds pages skip - player futures that trade all season and settle on the final leaderboard, where a September hot streak can triple a price in a week.
Voter markets, not outcome markets - they price a ballot, which is why they move on narrative and innings totals as much as on ERA. Award books are priced by fewer traders than the championship board, so they stay looser for longer between platforms and reward actually watching the races.
The current slate: moneylines and totals, updated all day.
Where our model disagrees with the market consensus.
Large positions as they hit, by wallet track record.
Cross-platform price gaps wide enough to lock in both sides.
Cents, implied probability, American, decimal and fractional.
The other season hub: Super Bowl, divisions, awards and the draft.
Prices come from each platform's own API and refresh at least once a minute. Contracts are quoted in cents and shown as implied probabilities, so a 15¢ price reads as 15%. A board hides when no platform is quoting its market - an empty section means no live market rather than an error. Market availability, eligibility and legality vary by platform and by state. This page is informational and is not betting or investment advice.
Live forecast
Postseason underway · consensus across 4 platforms
Each league's top contenders by chance to win the pennant - brighter means likelier. Each cell opens that pennant's full odds page.
Biggest price swings across MLB markets, refreshed every few minutes.
Last 24h of trades by $10K+ lifetime-profit wallets across MLB markets - the daily game slate plus season futures.
Live bets from traders with profitable track records.
