Politics Odds Across Every Prediction Market

A political prediction market is a contract on a stated question that pays $1.00 if the answer turns out to be yes and nothing if it does not, quoted in cents in between. That makes the price and the probability the same number: a contract on a bill becoming law at 35¢ is the market saying 35%. Nobody sets the line. The number is whatever two traders last agreed on, which is why it moves on a whip count or a court filing hours before a poll or a pundit catches up.

This page covers the politics markets that are not election races: legislation and shutdowns, appointments and pardons, impeachment and tenure, court rulings, treaties, recognitions and who leads a country at a date. Races themselves, from the Senate map to the 2028 nominees, live on the Elections board. Each card shows every platform currently quoting that question side by side, cheapest highlighted.

The venues carrying most of the volume are built differently. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange trading in dollars and lists the densest domestic policy calendar. PredictIt is the long-running US politics market with per-contract limits. Polymarket settles in USDC, draws a global pool and carries the widest geopolitics slate. Where two of them quote the same question, a gap of several cents is routine, but read the rules first: a difference in wording or settlement source can mean two contracts that look identical are not.

Shutdown, Impeachment and Other Deadline Markets

Most politics contracts are deadline markets: does the thing happen before a stated date. That structure has two consequences worth knowing. First, a contract that sits at low single digits for months is not mispriced; it is pricing a small chance times a shrinking window, and it will drift toward zero as the date approaches unless something happens. Second, when something does happen, a low-priced contract moves violently in percentage terms, so a headline that adds five cents has tripled the implied odds. Shutdown contracts add a third wrinkle: a deal can land hours before the deadline, so the last week is the most volatile stretch and the settlement definition is the first thing to read.

How to Read the Odds Cards Above

Each card is one question. The platform cells carry the live price at every venue quoting each outcome, and the cheapest quote is highlighted: for an identical $1.00 payoff, that is the best available buy. Prices link out to the market on the platform itself, and the card opens the full cross-platform table with price history. The odds converter turns any price into American or decimal odds, and the smart money feed shows which side the largest positions have taken.