Prediction Hunt

Politics Odds Across Every Prediction Market

Who stays, who goes, what passes and what gets struck down, priced side by side from every platform quoting it. Election races live on the Elections board.

Understanding Politics Odds on Prediction Markets

A political prediction market is a contract on a stated question that pays $1.00 if the answer turns out to be yes and nothing if it does not, quoted in cents in between. That makes the price and the probability the same number: a contract on a bill becoming law at 35¢ is the market saying 35%. Nobody sets the line. The number is whatever two traders last agreed on, which is why it moves on a whip count or a court filing hours before a poll or a pundit catches up.

This page covers the politics markets that are not election races: legislation and shutdowns, appointments and pardons, impeachment and tenure, court rulings, treaties, recognitions and who leads a country at a date. Races themselves, from the Senate map to the 2028 nominees, live on the Elections board. Each card shows every platform currently quoting that question side by side, cheapest highlighted.

The venues carrying most of the volume are built differently. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange trading in dollars and lists the densest domestic policy calendar. PredictIt is the long-running US politics market with per-contract limits. Polymarket settles in USDC, draws a global pool and carries the widest geopolitics slate. Where two of them quote the same question, a gap of several cents is routine, but read the rules first: a difference in wording or settlement source can mean two contracts that look identical are not.

Shutdown, Impeachment and Other Deadline Markets

Most politics contracts are deadline markets: does the thing happen before a stated date. That structure has two consequences worth knowing. First, a contract that sits at low single digits for months is not mispriced; it is pricing a small chance times a shrinking window, and it will drift toward zero as the date approaches unless something happens. Second, when something does happen, a low-priced contract moves violently in percentage terms, so a headline that adds five cents has tripled the implied odds. Shutdown contracts add a third wrinkle: a deal can land hours before the deadline, so the last week is the most volatile stretch and the settlement definition is the first thing to read.

How to Read the Odds Cards Above

Each card is one question. The platform cells carry the live price at every venue quoting each outcome, and the cheapest quote is highlighted: for an identical $1.00 payoff, that is the best available buy. Prices link out to the market on the platform itself, and the card opens the full cross-platform table with price history. The odds converter turns any price into American or decimal odds, and the smart money feed shows which side the largest positions have taken.

Politics Markets Covered on This Page

Every family below is priced across all quoting platforms in the grid above.

Legislation & Budget

Whether a named bill becomes law, how many votes it draws, and whether the government shuts down or the debt ceiling binds by a date. Process-driven contracts that reprice on whip counts and calendars rather than on polls.

Executive Actions & Appointments

Cabinet and senior staff changes, pardons, executive orders, and which countries a president visits or recognises. Often the fastest-moving politics markets, because a single announcement settles them.

Impeachment, Removal & Tenure

Whether an officeholder is impeached, resigns or otherwise leaves before a date, and who succeeds them. Long-dated and low-priced most of the time, which makes them sensitive to any headline.

Courts & Regulation

Supreme Court rulings, agency decisions, licences granted and enforcement outcomes. Binary, dated, and settled on a published document, so the settlement source is unusually clear.

Geopolitics & Diplomacy

Treaties and deals signed, states recognised, ceasefires holding, sanctions imposed or lifted, and referendums abroad. Priced by a global trader pool and frequently the widest cross-platform gaps on the board.

World Leaders

Who leads a country at a date, whether a head of government survives a confidence vote, and successions in non-democratic systems. Where the platforms disagree most on how a question will resolve, so read the rules.

Prizes & Recognition

Nobel Peace Prize and similar awards with a political dimension. Announced on a fixed date and settled instantly, with pricing driven by nomination chatter rather than fundamentals.

Tools & Resources

Election odds

Senate, House, governor and presidential races, priced side by side.

2026 midterms hub

Balance of power, key races and the generic ballot in one place.

Arbitrage scanner

Cross-platform price gaps wide enough to lock in both sides.

Smart money feed

Large positions as they hit, by wallet track record.

Trending markets

What is moving fastest across every platform right now.

Odds converter

Cents, implied probability, American, decimal and fractional.

Political Prediction Markets - Frequently Asked Questions

How do political prediction markets work?+
Every question trades as a contract that pays $1.00 if it resolves yes and nothing if it resolves no, priced in cents in between. The price is the probability: a contract on a bill passing at 30¢ is the market saying 30%. You are buying a fixed payoff on a stated outcome from another trader, with your loss capped at what you paid, and you can sell before resolution.
What is the difference between this page and the Elections board?+
Elections covers races: who wins a Senate seat, which party controls the House, the 2028 nominees. This page covers everything else in politics: legislation, shutdowns, appointments, impeachment, court rulings, treaties and world leaders. Some contracts sit on both because a question about a race is also a question about policy.
Which platforms list political markets?+
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange and lists many domestic policy contracts; PredictIt is the long-running US academic-exemption market for politics; Polymarket settles in USDC, draws global participation and has the widest geopolitics slate. This page shows every venue quoting each question side by side with the cheapest highlighted.
How are government shutdown odds priced?+
As a contract on whether appropriations lapse at a stated date, settled on whether a shutdown legally begins. The price moves on whip counts, continuing-resolution announcements and the calendar rather than on polling. Because a deal can land hours before the deadline, these contracts are among the most volatile in the final week and the settlement definition of "shutdown" is worth reading first.
How are impeachment or removal odds priced?+
As a dated contract that pays out only if the named event happens before expiry. Most of the time these sit at low single digits, and a low price means a small move in cents is a large move in percentage terms, so headlines produce sharp swings that fade. The contract asks whether it happens by the date, not whether it is deserved or likely eventually.
Why do political odds differ between platforms?+
Different trader pools, different rules and different collateral. A US-regulated venue with retail dollar flow and a global crypto-collateralised one attract different information and different biases, and small differences in how a question is worded or what source settles it can make two contracts genuinely non-identical. Read both sets of rules before treating a wide gap as free money.
Are political prediction markets legal in the US?+
Kalshi operates as a CFTC-regulated designated contract market and PredictIt under a long-standing no-action arrangement, both with contract-level limits; Polymarket settles in USDC and its US availability has changed over time. Eligibility varies by platform and by state, so check the venue itself. This page is informational and is not investment, trading or betting advice.

How This Page Works

Prices come from each platform's own API and refresh at least once a minute. Contracts are quoted in cents and shown as implied probabilities, so a 30¢ price reads as 30%. Politics contracts settle on a named official source, such as the Congressional Record, a published court opinion or a government announcement, and each platform states its source and deadline in the market rules. Only markets matched across platforms appear here, and a market drops off the page when no platform is quoting it, so an empty topic means no live market rather than an error. Availability, eligibility and legality vary by platform and by state. This page is informational and is not investment, trading or betting advice.