NFL Game Odds Across Every Prediction Market
This week’s slate - game winners, spreads, totals and player props - priced side by side from every platform quoting them. Season-long futures live on the NFL hub.
Understanding NFL Game Odds on Prediction Markets
NFL game odds on a prediction market are not lines set by a bookmaker - they are the last traded price of a contract, set by whoever is willing to buy and sell it. Every outcome on this board trades as its own contract that pays $1.00 if it happens and nothing if it does not, quoted in cents in between. That makes the price and the probability the same number: a team at 73¢ to win is the market saying 73%, with no vig to strip out first. A sportsbook writes the same idea as −270 with margin folded into the number.
This page is the week in front of you: game winners, point spreads, totals and player props for the current slate, each priced across every platform quoting it. Season-long markets - Super Bowl and conference odds, division races, win totals, MVP and the award races - live on the NFL futures page, so the two boards do not compete for the same question.
Two venues carry most of the game-week volume. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange trading in USD and lists the broadest per-slate inventory we track. Polymarket settles in USDC, has no meaningful position cap and draws global participation. On a marquee game the two usually sit within a couple of cents; on props and early-window games the gap runs wider, and for an identical payoff the cheaper quote is simply the better entry.
Every Game Opens Its Own Matchup Page
Each card on this board is one game, and tapping it opens that matchup page: the full cross-platform table, price history for each side, and how the market has moved since the line opened. Use the board to scan the slate and the matchup page to work out whether a specific game is priced wrong. Prices in the platform cells link straight out to the market on the venue itself, and the cheapest quote is highlighted - for an identical payoff, that is the best available buy.
Contract Price, Implied Probability and the Point Spread
Game-week bettors think in spreads; these contracts quote probability. The table below bridges the two, so a price you see here can be checked against a spread you saw somewhere else. The spread column is approximate on purpose - the same number of points implies a slightly different win probability depending on the game total, because points are harder to come by in a low-scoring game.
| Price | Implied | American | Roughly the spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25¢ | 25% | +300 | Underdog of about 7 points |
| 40¢ | 40% | +150 | Underdog of about 2.5 points |
| 50¢ | 50% | +100 | A pick’em game - no spread either way |
| 60¢ | 60% | -150 | Favorite of about 2.5 points |
| 73¢ | 73% | -270 | Favorite of about 7 points |
| 88¢ | 88% | -733 | Favorite of about 14 points |
Full conversion in both directions - including decimal and fractional - in the odds converter.
When Game-Week Prices Actually Move
A game contract opens days before kickoff and spends most of that time doing nothing. The moves cluster in two windows. The first is Friday and Saturday, when injury designations land and a questionable starter resolves either way - that is the single biggest repricing event of a normal week. The second is the ninety minutes before kickoff, when inactives are confirmed and weather firms up. Outside those windows, a price drifting on no news is usually money entering the market rather than information.
Primetime games are the exception worth knowing: a Thursday, Sunday or Monday night game trades longer and with more volume than anything in the early window, so its price carries more information - and it is normally the first contract on the slate to react when news breaks.
Why Player Props Are the Least Efficient Market Here
A moneyline is priced by everyone; a receiving-yards threshold on a third receiver is priced by a handful of people. Props turn on one player's usage rather than a team result, which means they depend on snap counts, target share and game script - information that is public but takes work to assemble, and that the market does not always absorb before kickoff. That combination is why props carry the widest cross-platform gaps on this board, and why a stale quote on one venue can sit several cents away from another quoting the same line.
Totals sit somewhere in between. They move on weather, skill-position injuries and expected pace, and they are the market least correlated with who actually wins - which makes them the cleanest way to trade a view on how a game gets played rather than who takes it.
NFL Game Markets Covered on This Page
Every family below is priced across all quoting platforms in the grid above, as each week's slate posts.
Game winner (moneyline)
The core game-week contract: each team priced to win the game outright, settling at $1.00 for the winner. Because the price is the probability, a team at 73¢ is the market giving it a 73% chance - the same information a sportsbook wraps in a −270 moneyline, minus the margin.
Point spread
Contracts on the margin rather than the result: whether a team covers a stated number. Spread markets and moneyline markets have to agree with each other, and when they drift apart on the same game it is usually the thinner of the two that has not caught up.
Total points (over/under)
Whether the two teams combine to clear a stated points total. Totals move on weather, injuries to the skill positions and pace, and they are the market least correlated with who actually wins - which makes them the cleanest way to trade a view on how a game gets played.
Player props
Per-player thresholds for the slate: passing, rushing and receiving yards, receptions, and touchdown scorers including anytime TD. Props are the deepest game-week inventory on the platforms we track and the least efficiently priced, because each contract depends on one player’s usage rather than on a team result.
Primetime games
Thursday, Sunday and Monday night games trade longer and with more volume than the early-window slate, so their prices are the most informative of the week - and they are usually the first to move when injury news lands.
Live in-game markets
Where platforms list them, prices continue to update after kickoff. In-game contracts reprice on every score and possession change, which makes them the fastest-moving markets on the site and the ones where cross-platform gaps open and close within seconds.
Tools & Resources
NFL futures odds
Super Bowl, divisions, win totals, MVP and the award races.
Model picks
Where our model disagrees with the market consensus.
Smart money feed
Large positions as they hit, by wallet track record.
Arbitrage scanner
Cross-platform price gaps wide enough to lock in both sides.
Odds converter
Cents, implied probability, American, decimal and fractional.
Expected value calculator
Whether a price beats your own estimate of the outcome.
NFL Game Odds - Frequently Asked Questions
How do NFL game odds work on a prediction market?+
Where can I find NFL player props across prediction markets?+
How does a contract price translate to a point spread?+
Can I compare Kalshi and Polymarket NFL odds side by side?+
Where are the matchup analysis pages?+
How often do NFL game odds update here?+
What about Super Bowl and season-long odds?+
Are NFL prediction markets the same as sports betting?+
How This Page Works
Prices come from each platform's own API and refresh at least once a minute. Contracts are quoted in cents and shown as implied probabilities, so a 73¢ price reads as 73%. Spread equivalences in the table above are approximations, not conversions. Only markets matched across platforms appear here, and a game drops off the board once it settles - an empty board between slates means no live market rather than an error. Market availability and legality vary by platform and by state. This page is informational and is not betting or investment advice.