US Elections · November 3, 2026
The midterms as the markets price them: who controls the Senate and the House, every battleground race state by state, seat counts, the generic ballot and the primaries that set the matchups, compared across every platform quoting them.
Who controls Congress after November 3, 2026 - the headline markets.
Election contracts here don't work like a pundit's rating or a poll topline. There's no committee setting a number. The price is whatever the last buyer and seller agreed to, and it moves every time someone takes the other side. Each outcome is its own $1.00 contract. It pays a dollar if it happens, zero if it doesn't, and trades in cents everywhere in between. So a 55¢ contract on a party to control the Senate isn't a stylized "implied probability" - it is the market's probability, full stop, backed by traders risking real money on being right.
This page covers the whole cycle in one place: who controls the Senate and the House, the seat-count and generic ballot markets that price the size of the win, every state Senate and governor race with a live book, and the primaries that set the November matchups. Looking for the exhaustive list instead of the forecast? The all-markets view carries every 2026 midterm contract we match, and each one opens its own odds page.
Pricing on the same contract rarely lines up exactly across venues. Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange settling in USD, carries the widest midterms menu we track - chamber control, seat counts, the generic ballot and dozens of state races. Polymarket settles in USDC, pulls in volume from outside the US, and tends to hold the biggest size on the headline markets. PredictIt, the veteran political exchange, still quotes many of the same races. Where more than one venue prices a row, the boards above show every quote and highlight the cheapest - when a gap on something liquid is wider than a few cents, the lower-priced side is the better buy for the same payout.
The same election price can be written three ways. Contracts quote cents, forecasters use percentages, and betting coverage borrows American odds - all describing one number.
| Price | Implied | American | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2¢ | 2% | +4900 | A third-party longshot or a safe seat flipping |
| 10¢ | 10% | +900 | A live upset - a likely seat coming loose |
| 25¢ | 25% | +300 | A real underdog in a lean state |
| 50¢ | 50% | +100 | A pure toss-up, the fought-over shelf of the map |
| 75¢ | 75% | -300 | A clear favorite; a lean rating in market form |
| 95¢ | 95% | -1900 | A safe seat; only tail risk left to price |
Full conversion in both directions - including decimal and fractional - in the odds converter.
Senate control is an aggregate of 35 separate races, so the control market and the state markets keep each other honest. If the toss-up states each price the same party around 50%, control should sit near the seat math those races imply - and when it doesn't, one side of the book is wrong. Traders arbitrage that gap all cycle, which is why the control number is usually the most reliable single read on the map. House control works differently: with 435 seats moving on a national swing, it trades like a referendum on the environment, and the generic ballot market is its natural companion - direction from one, size from the other.
The battleground board above sorts every priced race by distance from 50/50 rather than by any published rating. The practical read: the top row of each panel is where the money says the fight is, and a state drifting up that board is repricing before the ratings agencies re-publish. A race that is missing entirely means no platform lists a live book for it yet, not that the race is uncontested.
General-election markets grind; primary markets jump. A nomination is decided in one night among an electorate that is hard to poll, so the books carry real uncertainty right up to the close - and then settle at once. They also cascade: the moment a primary resolves, the general-election market for that seat reprices around the actual matchup, and occasionally the control market moves with it. The Primaries tab above lists the live nomination books next in the calendar, which is where the sharpest short-term price action on this page lives.
Every family below is priced across all quoting platforms in the boards above.
The headline market of the cycle: one contract per party, settling at $1.00 for whichever controls the Senate after the 2026 midterms. It is the most widely quoted midterms market we track, priced on up to five platforms at once, and it moves on every primary result, retirement and scandal because it aggregates all 35 individual races into one number.
The same question for the House, where all 435 seats are up. Because the House flips on a national swing rather than a handful of named races, this market trades like a referendum on the political environment itself, and it usually reprices ahead of the district-level handicapping.
Bucketed markets on HOW MANY seats a party holds after the election, not just who wins. The extra resolution matters: control markets can sit near certainty while the seat-count buckets still fight over the size of the majority, which is where the late-cycle price action lives.
The House popular vote margin as a market - the prediction market version of the generic ballot polls, in bands. Comparing the priced margin against the polling average is the fastest read on whether traders believe the polls.
Party-level winner markets for the individual Senate contests, from the marquee toss-ups down to safe seats. Most quote on two or three platforms; the battleground board above sorts them by competitiveness so the fought-over states surface first.
36 states elect governors in 2026. Most priced races are party-level; the open California race is quoted candidate by candidate and carries the largest volume of any single midterms market. Governor markets often diverge from the same state's federal races, and the gap is informative.
Nomination markets settle months before November and often carry the sharpest short-term price action, because a primary is decided in one night. They also feed the general-election markets: a surprise nominee reprices the seat within minutes.
Every 2026 midterm contract we match, priced across platforms.
The full elections tree: midterms, 2028 and international races.
The biggest movers across every platform, updated all day.
Large positions as they hit, by wallet track record.
Cross-platform price gaps wide enough to lock in both sides.
Cents, implied probability, American, decimal and fractional.
Prices come from each platform's own API and refresh at least once a minute. Contracts are quoted in cents and shown as implied probabilities, so a 55¢ price reads as 55%. A board hides when no platform is quoting its market - an empty section means no live market rather than an error. Market availability, eligibility and legality vary by platform and by state. This page is informational and is not betting, investment or legal advice.
Live forecast · Senate
34 days to Election Day · consensus across 5 platforms
▲ 13.8 pts / 30d
Live forecast · House
34 days to Election Day · consensus across 4 platforms
▲ 5.8 pts / 30d
The leading party in every priced senate race, tinted by its chance. Dimmer means tighter. Tap a state for its full odds.
The leading party and its chance in each priced race, closest contests first - dimmer means tighter. Every cell opens that race's full odds page.
Biggest price swings across 2026 midterm markets, refreshed every few minutes.
Last 24h of trades by $10K+ lifetime-profit wallets across the chamber-control and battleground markets on this page.
Live bets from traders with profitable track records.
