Economics Odds Across Every Prediction Market

An economics prediction market is a contract on a stated question that pays $1.00 if the answer turns out to be yes and nothing if it does not, quoted in cents in between. That makes the price and the probability the same number: a contract on a quarter-point cut at 70¢ is the market saying 70%. Nobody publishes the line. The number is whatever two traders last agreed on, and it updates the second a data print or a central-bank statement lands.

This page covers every matched economics market we track: Fed and other central-bank decisions meeting by meeting, inflation and jobs prints, recession and GDP contracts, debt-ceiling and default deadlines, index and commodity levels, and corporate events with a macro angle such as IPO timing and executive successions. Each card shows every platform currently quoting that question side by side, cheapest highlighted.

The two venues carrying most of the volume are built differently. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange trading in dollars and runs the deepest Fed, CPI and payrolls ladders anywhere. Polymarket settles in USDC, draws a global pool and lists a wider set of international central-bank and one-off macro questions. Where both quote the same outcome, a gap of a few cents is routine, but a contract that settles on core rather than headline inflation, or at a different release time, is a different contract, so read the rules before treating a spread as free money.

Prediction Markets vs. Fed Funds Futures

The Fed odds most people know come from the futures market, read through the CME's FedWatch tool: the price of a fed funds future implies an expected rate, and a model turns that into meeting probabilities. A prediction market skips the model. Each outcome at each meeting is its own contract, and its price is the probability directly. The two usually sit close together. When they diverge, the futures side is carrying hedging demand and term premium that has nothing to do with the meeting itself, while the contract side is a cleaner read of what traders think will happen. Neither is right by default; the gap between them is the useful number.

Data-release contracts deserve one specific piece of care. CPI, payrolls and GDP thresholds settle on the official print within minutes of release and the thresholds are strict, so a contract sitting at 50¢ the night before is the most volatile instrument on this site for about ten seconds the next morning. That is structure, not mispricing: the probability has to collapse to 0 or 100 on a known second. Read the threshold and the named release before trading one.

How to Read the Odds Cards Above

Each card is one question, often one meeting or one release. The platform cells carry the live price at every venue quoting each outcome, and the cheapest quote is highlighted: for an identical $1.00 payoff, that is the best available buy. Prices link out to the market on the platform itself, and the card opens the full cross-platform table with price history. The odds converter turns any price into American or decimal odds, and the arbitrage scanner flags pairs whose prices have drifted far enough apart to lock in both sides.